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Escalating US-Iran tensions risk destabilizing global oil markets, while US-China friction could impact crypto markets and international trade.
The post Trump vows US retaliation against Iran after attack on Jordan base, warns China on arms supplies appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions could destabilize global markets and strain international relations, particularly with China and Iran's allies.
The post President Trump vows US retaliation against Iran following attack on jordanian base appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The stalled CLARITY Act highlights ongoing uncertainty in U.S. crypto regulation, potentially impacting market confidence and innovation.
The post CLARITY act odds fall to 27% as senate focus shifts to other priorities appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The incident underscores the critical need for robust security measures in bridge protocols, potentially prompting stricter regulatory oversight.
The post Offchain CEO details bridge risk management strategies after $24M Arbitrum exploit appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Jupiter's growth in off-market trading highlights a shift towards decentralized finance, challenging traditional exchanges and regulatory frameworks.
The post Jupiter reports 360% YTD growth in off-market trading volume as tokenized equity holders near 760,000 appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin Magazine
Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis Slams Democrat Lawmakers For Dragging Their Feet Over Clarity Act
Pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis on Wednesday slammed Democrats for holding back the Clarity Act.
Speaking on the Senate floor, Senator Lummis, of Wyoming, spoke of the bipartisan work that had gone into the bill — but questioned why it was stalling.
Lawmakers are hoping the Clarity Act gets passed before Congress departs for August recess. While the bill has been drafted bipartisanly, some Democrats are unhappy with the current version.
JUST IN:
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 29, 2026Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis calls out the Democrats for holding up the Clarity Act:
"After nearly 11 months of giving almost everything asked of us, I genuinely don't know what else my Democrat colleagues need before we act."
pic.twitter.com/1SMzfkNVfQ
“This is a very good bill: good for the country, good for consumers, and good for the people we all represent on both sides of this aisle,” said Senator Lummis.
“And after 11 months of giving nearly everything that was asked of us, I am genuinely struggling to understand what else my colleagues across the aisle think it needs before we act.”
Major financial institutions, lawmakers and companies have thrown their weight behind the new bill, but a group of Democrats last week said in a statement that the bill in its current form falls short.
A number of lawmakers are hoping the bill gets passed before Congress departs for August recess.
Despite being passed in the house of representatives last year with strong bipartisan support, the Clarity Act has been in a deadlock for much of 2026, partially the banking lobby raised concerns over stablecoin yield.
An updated bill of the Clarity Act was introduced last week that addressed ethics concerns — banning government officials and their families from issuing or promoting crypto.
Republicans are hoping to gain bipartisan support for the bill this week to advance the legislation. If passed, the long-awaited bill would create a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market.
Conservative Lummis earned the name “Bitcoin Senator” over the years for her pro-crypto approach on Capitol Hill.
The 71-year-old senator has admitted owning the leading cryptocurrency since 2013 and has been vital in pro-crypto legislation, including by helping draft the Bitcoin Act for a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and co-sponsoring the 2025’s GENIUS Act to regulate stablecoins.
This post Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis Slams Democrat Lawmakers For Dragging Their Feet Over Clarity Act first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin Barely Budges as Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged
Bitcoin was trading higher on Wednesday — but only slightly — after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates still.
The leading cryptocurrency was recently priced at close to $64,402 per coin, after moving up by nearly 1% in the hour following the announcement.
As expected, the U.S. central bank left the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Three of the 12 members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee “preferred” a quarter-percentage-point hike at this meeting.
BREAKING:
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 29, 2026
Speaking to the press following the announcement, the Fed’s new Chair, Kevin Warsh, revealed little about where the central bank would go next.
“The Fed’s on the case,” he said. “I’ve been heartened by the reception I’ve received. We’re committed as ever to deliver.”
He added that the July rate decision was “a rigorous review of the economic situation.”
“I wouldn’t characterize what we did as anything like a pause,” he said. “I would characterize what we did as a rigorous review of the economic situation. I would characterize what we did as a review of the big, hard questions.”
Warsh, who took over in May, has said he has “no tolerance” for inflation that has been running above the central bank’s target for more than five years.
Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low-interest rate environment, and crypto investors have been hoping the Federal Reserve would cut rates to boost digital assets.
President Donald Trump since taking office has pushed for lower interest rates, and clashed with ex-Fed chair Jerome Powell over the matter.
For now, Warsh doesn’t seem like he’ll be going in that direction as sticky inflation continues to bother Americans.
The Federal Reserve started aggressively raising rates in 2022 in a bid to control 40-year-high inflation spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. Bitcoin was hit by the tightening.
Then, in 2024, the central bank repeatedly cut rates. It has been hesitant to lower them since the end of 2025.
This post Bitcoin Barely Budges as Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.
Bitcoin Magazine
Democratic Senator Backs Clarity Act — With Proposed Law Enforcement Changes Included: Report
Bipartisan work on the long-awaited Clarity Act continues after Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto said that she, along with two law enforcement groups, are feeling “good” about proposed changes to the bill, according to a news report.
Along with the National Association of Assistant U.S. Attorneys and the National District Attorneys Association, Cortez backed changes to the bill and said they felt positive about “the chance to resolve this issue once and for all,” according to a POLITICO report.
The changes were sent to the White House. A number of lawmakers are hoping the Clarity Act — which would set in stone crypto regulation in the U.S. — gets passed before Congress departs for August recess. But some sticking points remain — particularly with Democrats.
JUST IN:
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 29, 2026
"We feel good about the chance to resolve this issue once and for all" – POLITICOpic.twitter.com/Bn3b7dcz8e
According to the news report, the changes proposed by the law enforcement groups refer to a small section of the bill which seeks to protect some crypto software developers and firms from being prosecuted for illicit activity committed by others on platforms they create.
A new version of the Clarity Act has been circulating amongst lawmakers since last week; it has changes regarding ethics and bans officials and their families from issuing or promoting crypto — something lawmakers previously had issue with.
The Clarity Act was passed last year by the House of Representatives but has been in deadlock in 2026 while regulators and banking chiefs hash out a new version of the bill.
The banking lobby has raised concerns over stablecoins and the yield they would potentially pay customers and some Democrats think the bill falls short regarding ethical issues.
Still, the bill has been worked on by both Republicans and Democrats — despite crypto legislation being something pushed by pro-crypto President Donald Trump.
Major institutions, including Fidelity and Goldman Sachs, as well as crypto lobby groups and politicians, have said the revised bill works in its current form.
This post Democratic Senator Backs Clarity Act — With Proposed Law Enforcement Changes Included: Report first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.
Bitcoin Magazine
Banking Lobby CEO Talks Crypto Clarity Act as Senators Race To Pass Bill
The CEO of the American Bankers Association, Rob Nichols, has said that the banking lobby wants the Clarity Act to succeed — but small edits to the bill still need to be made.
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box show Wednesday, Nichols said that while there is a “lot of good” in the Clarity Act, the issue around stablecoins and local lending needs to be fixed.
JUST IN:
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 29, 2026
"I do think that the crypto and the banking sectors can coexist. I think we can be the crypto capital of the world."
"We're working with the Senators" on this bill. pic.twitter.com/3SldlEBEOS
A number of lawmakers are hoping the Clarity Act — which would set in stone crypto regulation in the U.S. — gets passed before Congress departs for August recess. But a sticking point of the bill has been related to concerns banking chiefs have over stablecoin yield.
“The bill is about 600 pages and there’s only two paragraphs where we’re suggesting tiny surgical edits,” said Nichols.
“I do think that the crypto and the banking sectors can coexist. I think we can be the crypto capital of the world and I think we can be the banking capital of the world.”
The bill was passed last year by the House of Representatives but has been in deadlock after banking chiefs raised concerns over stablecoins and the yield they would potentially pay customers.
America’s biggest crypto exchange, Coinbase, pulled support for the bill in January after clashing with banking chiefs who said that earning yield on stablecoins should be banned.
U.S. banks have said they could lose customers if crypto exchanges offer more attractive products for their deposit base.
Coinbase’s Chief Policy Officer, Faryar Shirzad, this week shrugged off the concerns that the banking lobby has, claiming that top lenders are already adopting crypto technology.
Top U.S. banks — including JP Morgan and Bank of America — have expressed interest or already started debuting stablecoin products, which run on blockchain technology.
A new draft circulating last week bans officials and their families from issuing or promoting crypto — something opposition lawmakers previously had issue with.
GOP lawmakers are pushing Democrats to pass the bill. Bipartisan support for the bill exists though some lawmakers — such as senator Elizabeth Warren — have criticized the draft, claiming it would allow President Donald Trump to make money from crypto, as well as benefit criminals.
Major institutions, including Fidelity and Goldman Sachs, as well as crypto lobby groups and politicians, have said the revised bill works in its current format.
This post Banking Lobby CEO Talks Crypto Clarity Act as Senators Race To Pass Bill first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.
Bitcoin Magazine
Crypto Giant DCG Warns Senate: Pass Clarity Act or Lose Ground to Singapore, UAE
Crypto investment firm Digital Currency Group is the latest big name to throw its weight behind the Clarity Act.
In a statement posted Wednesday, the conglomerate said that the current draft of the long-awaited bill “offers exactly the kind of certainty our industry needs to grow and thrive responsibly.”
A number of lawmakers are hoping the Clarity Act — which would set in stone crypto regulation in the U.S. — gets passed before Congress departs for August recess. While the bill has been drafted bipartisanly, some Democrats are unhappy with the current version.
“The bill is the product of serious negotiation and reflects genuine compromise from industry, advocates, and members on both sides of the aisle,” the statement read.
“The competitive stakes could not be higher. The United States has long been the global center of technological innovation, but we are ceding ground at an alarming pace,” it continued, adding that “talent, capital, and innovative companies” are looking to countries like Singapore and the United Arab Emirates to set up shop.
Crypto giant DCG has over 200 companies in its portfolio, most notably Grayscale, the manager of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
Lawmakers have been working on the Clarity Act since last year. Republicans passed the bill in 2025 but it has been in a deadlock this year, partially because banking chiefs raised concerns over stablecoin yield.
A new draft circulating last week bans officials and their families from issuing or promoting crypto — something opposition lawmakers previously had issue with.
GOP lawmakers are pushing Democrats to pass the bill. Bipartisan support for the bill exists though some lawmakers — such as senator Elizabeth Warren — have criticized the draft, claiming it would allow President Donald Trump to make money from crypto, as well as benefit criminals.
A group of Democrats last week penned a statement claiming the bill in its current form falls short.
Major institutions, including Fidelity and Goldman Sachs, as well as crypto lobby groups and politicians, have said the revised bill works in its current format.
This post Crypto Giant DCG Warns Senate: Pass Clarity Act or Lose Ground to Singapore, UAE first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.
CryptoSlate
Bitcoin entered today (July 29) with three demand channels losing momentum near $64,000. Four consecutive US spot Bitcoin ETF sessions saw a combined $526.5 million in net outflows, while Glassnode reported weaker perpetual futures buying and stagnant broader on-chain capital inflows.
Bitcoin traded near $64,200, leaving $64,000 as an immediate market test rather than a guaranteed floor.
Farside Investors data shows ETF outflows of $225.1 million on July 23, $240.1 million on July 24, $11.6 million on July 27, and $49.7 million on July 28. As of about 08:50 UTC on Wednesday, July 28 was the latest session listed.
Those outflows show weakness in a major regulated demand channel, not the whole institutional market. They also do not establish what caused Bitcoin’s price move. As CryptoSlate noted after the first reversal, finalized flows can reflect positioning established at different points during a trading session.
Glassnode’s Week 31 market pulse described Bitcoin’s retreat from roughly $66,700 toward $64,000 and a recovery to about $65,100. Beneath that range, perpetual-futures buy-side aggression had declined and long-side funding payments had cooled sharply, even as aggregate open interest increased slightly. That combination points to more cautious leverage, not the disappearance of derivatives exposure.
On-chain measures offered little evidence of fresh capital replacing that demand. Glassnode found that active addresses were steady, but economic settlement and transaction pressure remained restrained and broader capital inflows were stagnant. The firm also said regulated investment products had shifted into net outflows as weekly trading volume declined.
The derivatives signal is not one-way. A separate CryptoSlate options analysis found about 52 open put contracts for every 100 calls, down from 76 in late June. The premium for one-week downside protection had also eased, although puts still traded above comparable calls. Options traders were carrying less immediate protection even as perpetual-futures demand softened.
When the holder buffer starts to erode
Long-term holders remain the clearest offset. Glassnode said they continued to show conviction while aggregate unrealized losses declined modestly and realized losses eased. That helps explain why weaker ETF, perpetual-futures and on-chain demand has not, by itself, shown that support has failed.
The holder-buffer thesis would weaken if a sustained break below the local range arrived with renewed long-term-holder distribution, rising realized losses or faster selling pressure. Those changes would remove the stabilizing forces Glassnode identified. A brief move below $64,000, without that deterioration, would show a deeper price test but would not by itself establish that holder-led support had broken.
The post Three key demand drivers stall at once, leaving Bitcoin’s $64,000 support to long-term holders appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Raphael Zagury, the newly appointed CEO of Bitcoin-focused public company Twenty One Capital, says the premium-funded model behind Bitcoin treasury firms cannot provide easy returns forever. His answer is to build cash-generating businesses around the company’s BTC balance sheet.
In a July 22 fireside chat furnished to the SEC, Zagury described issuing shares above the net asset value of a company’s Bitcoin holdings and using the proceeds to buy more BTC as a temporary market dislocation. As more companies copy the strategy, he said, their market-value premiums should converge toward 1x.
“There’s no free money forever,” Zagury said. The premium could return, he added, but it should not remain the only source of shareholder returns.
Twenty One had already outlined an operating-company model in May. Its refreshed priorities now include buying or building operating businesses, expanding capital-markets capabilities, developing Bitcoin-backed financial products and creating a Bitcoin-native lending platform. Prospective acquisitions must be accretive when measured against Bitcoin.
The shift coincides with a leadership reset. Zagury became CEO effective July 20 after Jack Mallers resigned as chief executive and director. The company said Mallers’ exit was unrelated to any disagreement and that he would focus on Strike. Twenty One is no longer pursuing a combination with Strike.
Zagury used mining to illustrate the proposed return engine. He compared its potential cash generation with the role insurance played in Berkshire Hathaway’s capital-allocation model, supplying funds that could be reinvested across a portfolio. He also said Twenty One had not yet built such a model and that execution would be difficult.
Asked whether Twenty One was trying to outperform Bitcoin, Zagury initially agreed, then qualified that answer. Matching Bitcoin’s value with lower volatility could still be a good result, he said, while beating BTC over the long term would require exceptional opportunities or irresponsible leverage. He framed mining and other operating businesses as a route to better risk-adjusted returns and said shareholder value should be measured in Bitcoin terms.
Twenty One’s first-quarter filing reported 43,514 BTC as of March 31. The same filing presented no operating-revenue line and reported a $10.57 million loss from operations, meaning the planned cash-flow engine had not yet appeared in reported results.
Zagury’s discussion of using treasury assets did not announce a sale. His example of exchanging 50 BTC from a hypothetical 100-BTC treasury for a cash-generating company was explicitly hypothetical. A possible combination with Elektron Energy, the mining business whose management team he leads, remains preliminary, with no definitive agreement or assurance that a deal will be approved.
Twenty One has therefore set a harder benchmark than accumulating Bitcoin through share issuance: building businesses that can improve returns on a Bitcoin basis. Whether those businesses can deliver better risk-adjusted returns remains an unproven strategy rather than a reported result.
The post “There’s no free money forever”: Twenty One Capital’s new CEO warns the Bitcoin treasury playbook is dying appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Investors who put $1,000 into a GS Finance note linked to Strategy’s MSTR shares are on track to get about $217 back at its July 29 maturity.
MSTR’s July 24 close pushes the note deep into the downside formula in Goldman’s filing, pointing to a loss of roughly $783, or 78.3%, of the principal. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC still controls the final calculation and can postpone the date or adjust the terms.
GS Finance issued the note, with The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. backing the payout. Strategy’s share price decides what investors receive, but payment responsibility rests with GS Finance and Goldman. Wells Fargo Securities handled distribution, and Wells Fargo Advisors was named as a possible resale channel.
The SEC-filed pricing supplement set MSTR's starting price at $421.74 and its threshold at 80% of that figure, or $337.392. A closing price at or above the barrier would have returned $1,417, including a 41.7% contingent gain. A finish below it instead subjects the investment to MSTR's full decline from the starting price.
The payoff creates a steep cliff. A close exactly at the threshold would still qualify for $1,417. A close even slightly below it would switch the holder to the downside formula, calculated from $421.74 rather than from the barrier. The barrier, set 20% below the starting price, determines which formula applies and offers no loss cap after a breach.
How the payout works
Historical data from Investing.com and Twelve Data place MSTR's July 24 close at $91.67, after the shares traded between $89.76 and $93.68. The closing price was far below both the $421.74 starting level and the $337.392 threshold.
Under the filed downside formula, the maturity payment equals $1,000 plus $1,000 multiplied by MSTR's return from its starting price. Using the $91.67 close produces an indicated payment of $217.36. The same calculation can be expressed as $1,000 multiplied by $91.67 and divided by $421.74.
The final supplement recorded $660,000 in original aggregate face amount. It does not state how much principal remained outstanding at maturity. Without that figure, the filing supports only the holder-level result per $1,000 note and no defensible estimate of investors' total losses across the offering.
MSTR is absent from Nasdaq Trader's July 24 halt log. No CUSIP-specific postponement, corporate-action adjustment, or final payment notice was located in the reviewed public sources. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC's contractual determination therefore remains unresolved, and $217.36 is an evidence-backed estimate. If the scheduled dates and filed terms were unchanged, each $1,000 note would return about 22 cents on the dollar.
The post Goldman Sachs notes tied to Strategy set to pay just 22 cents on the dollar at maturity appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The market values Hyperscale Data’s common equity below its disclosed Bitcoin holdings. Whether that gap belongs to common shareholders is a much harder question.
The company said Tuesday that its wholly owned Sentinum and Ault Capital Group subsidiaries held 1,106.0467 Bitcoin as of July 27. It valued the combined position at about $71.7 million using a Bitcoin closing price of $64,784.
A MarketWatch quote backed by FactSet placed Hyperscale Data’s market capitalization near $56.4 million after the July 28 close. The adjacent-day figures leave the disclosed gross Bitcoin value roughly $15 million above the equity value, even before assigning anything to the company’s data centers or other businesses.
That comparison differs from net asset value. A May 18 quarterly filing covering March 31, well before the current Bitcoin total, reported $196.0 million of current liabilities and $216.7 million of total liabilities. It also disclosed a $90.1 million preferred-stock liquidation preference within stockholders’ equity, a senior claim separate from the GAAP liabilities figure. Those consolidated obligations sit against the company’s other assets as well as its Bitcoin, so the figures form a claims map rather than a calculation that subtracts every liability from the treasury.
The March 31 filing also reported $16.7 million of restricted crypto assets that included Bitcoin pledged as collateral for convertible notes issued to JGB entities. The filing leaves the restricted portion of the July 27 treasury unknown, preventing investors from treating the full $71.7 million as demonstrated unencumbered value available to common holders.
The ATM changes the denominator
Hyperscale Data opened an at-the-market program on June 18 that can sell up to $300 million of common stock. Its June 18 prospectus supplement sets no minimum sale amount or fixed share count and says the company will report sales at least quarterly.
Public filings through July 28 leave the program’s actual share sales and proceeds undisclosed. The $300 million figure describes authorized capacity; future quarterly disclosure will determine how much stock entered the market and at what price. Issuance at GPUS’s current scale could materially change each share’s claim on the Bitcoin treasury.
Subsidiary ownership adds another unresolved layer. Tuesday’s release gave only a combined Bitcoin balance for Sentinum and ACG, although it said ACG bought 15 Bitcoin during the previous week. Hyperscale Data expects, without assurance, to divest ACG in the second quarter of 2027 through an exchange tied to Series F preferred stock. The disclosures leave the treatment of ACG-held Bitcoin before that separation unspecified.
Investors are pricing a changing pool of assets behind substantial claims, possible ATM issuance and an unresolved subsidiary split. The apparent discount is visible; the portion available to common shareholders remains uncertain.
The post Hyperscale Data sits on $71 million in Bitcoin with a $56 million market cap – Here is why its not a bargain appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Morgan Stanley’s new Ethereum and Solana exchange-traded products generated roughly $38 million in combined trading volume on their first day, giving the Wall Street firm an immediate presence in two crypto fund markets dominated by earlier entrants.
The Morgan Stanley Ethereum Trust (MSSE) recorded 933,715 shares traded Tuesday and attracted $5.15 million of net inflows. The Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) traded 951,216 shares, producing roughly $19 million of turnover but no net creations. Each product began trading on NYSE Arca at around $20 per share.
Data from SoSoValue shows that the MSSE’s inflows represented more than a third of the roughly $14.5 million that entered US ETH funds during the session. BlackRock’s staking-enabled ETHB drew $5.9 million, and its larger ETHA product added $3.5 million.
Meanwhile, the Solana market moved in the opposite direction, with the existing fund group losing $18.1 million as investors pulled the entire amount from Bitwise’s BSOL.
The contrasting debuts provide an early test of how much market share Morgan Stanley can capture after entering both categories late. MSSE converted a sizable portion of its first-day trading into new assets, while MSOL drew comparable secondary-market activity during a session when investors were reducing exposure to the broader Solana fund complex.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched the two products July 28 as an extension of a crypto lineup that began with the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust in April.
MSBT had accumulated more than $400 million in assets as of press time despite entering a Bitcoin fund market already led by BlackRock and Fidelity.
The new products also push Morgan Stanley beyond simple spot exposure. Both can stake their underlying assets, placing the firm directly into a growing competition over how much yield fund issuers return to investors.
Morgan Stanley undercuts rivals on fees
Morgan Stanley is entering that fight with one of the lowest combinations of management and staking charges available in either market.
MSSE and MSOL each carry a 0.14% annual sponsor fee. Morgan Stanley will also take no direct share of their staking rewards, while custodians and staking providers are expected to receive an aggregate 5% of gross rewards. The remainder is retained by the trusts before distributions and applicable expenses.
That structure undercuts several established competitors.
In Solana, Bitwise’s BSOL charges a 0.20% management fee and passes 6% of staking rewards to service providers. Grayscale’s GSOL charges 0.19% and gives up 7%, while Franklin Templeton’s SOEZ takes 8% of staking rewards. Staking cuts rise to at least 10% at 21Shares, 15% at Fidelity and 25% at VanEck, Farside Investors data show.
The ETH market has a similar spread, Farside data shows. Grayscale’s lower-cost ETH product carries a 0.15% management fee and a 6% staking charge, while BlackRock’s ETHB has a stated 0.25% sponsor fee and gives up 10% of staking rewards.
The staking charges on 21Shares’ TETH and Grayscale’s larger ETHE product stand at 25% and 23%, respectively.
BlackRock temporarily undercuts Morgan Stanley on ETHB’s headline management cost through a waiver that lowers its fee to 0.12% on the first $2.5 billion of assets for 12 months beginning in March. Its standard rate remains 0.25%.
Morgan Stanley’s challenge therefore extends beyond a conventional ETF fee war. For staking products, investor returns also depend on how much of the portfolio participates in the network and how much of the resulting reward is retained by intermediaries.
MSSE plans under normal market conditions to stake between 50% and 80% of its Ethereum holdings. Its prospectus sets 80% as the target maximum while allowing the amount to vary with redemption needs, network withdrawal times and market liquidity.
MSOL is more aggressive. The trust intends to stake as much as 100% of its SOL, while periodically keeping assets unstaked to meet expected redemptions and other liquidity requirements.
Both funds intend to distribute net staking rewards in cash monthly, but at least quarterly. Rewards accrue in ETH or SOL before the trusts sell an equivalent amount of the tokens to fund distributions to shareholders.
That approach gives investors access to staking income through a traditional brokerage product without requiring them to custody tokens or interact directly with validators.
Distribution tests the incumbents’ head start
Despite the lower costs, Morgan Stanley still has a substantial gap to close against funds that have spent months or years accumulating assets and liquidity.
Bitwise’s BSOL has attracted about $892 million of cumulative net inflows, accounting for most of the roughly $1.12 billion accumulated across the Solana products tracked by Farside.
BlackRock’s original ETHA product has drawn about $11.4 billion, while its newer staking-enabled ETHB has already attracted roughly $529 million.
Those balances give the incumbent products deeper trading histories and established investor bases, advantages that a lower fee does not immediately erase.
However, Morgan Stanley brings a different advantage.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas described the new products as the most significant additions to the ETH and Solana ETF markets since their initial launch, citing Morgan Stanley’s size and reach. The firm has almost 16,000 financial advisers overseeing about $2.6 trillion in combined client assets.
Its broader Wealth Management business ended 2025 with $7.4 trillion in client assets and more than 20 million client relationships.
Morgan Stanley has also identified crypto and tokenization among the product capabilities it intends to expand as more customers move between its E*TRADE, workplace and adviser-led channels.
The firm has been building the infrastructure around those ambitions. E*TRADE completed the rollout of direct Bitcoin, Ethereum and SOL trading earlier this month, while Morgan Stanley has also created a referral arrangement with Galaxy Digital that allows eligible wealth clients to convert crypto exposure into shares of spot ETPs.
That distribution network gives MSSE and MSOL a route to investors beyond the crypto-native audience that helped establish many of their competitors.
The post Morgan Stanley is using $7.4 trillion in client assets and rock-bottom fees to hijack Wall Street’s crypto boom appeared first on CryptoSlate.
CryptoTicker.io
Cardano is trading at $0.1638 after a sharp three-day bounce off $0.1535, and momentum has quietly shifted back in favour of buyers. The $0.18 area is where $ADA was rejected a week ago, and it is the level that would confirm the July downtrend is over. Getting there means clearing $0.1751 first. Here is what the 3-hour chart says about the odds.
What Does the Cardano 3-Hour Chart Show Right Now?
The 3-hour chart shows ADA in a broad range with a clear pattern of lower highs. The month opened with an aggressive impulse that spiked into $0.200 on 5 July, a move that was rejected almost immediately and gave back every cent of the advance within 48 hours.
The second attempt came on 23 July, when Cardano pushed up to roughly $0.1805 before rolling over again. That lower high matters, because it confirms sellers are stepping in earlier on each rally. Price then slid into $0.1535 on 27 July, and that is where buyers finally defended.
The current candle prints at $0.1638, with an intraday high of $0.1648 and a low of $0.1626. In other words, ADA has recovered around 6.7% from the swing low but is still sitting almost 18% below the July peak.
The structure to keep in mind is simple: three horizontal levels define everything. Resistance at $0.1751, support at $0.1488, and a deeper support shelf at $0.1424 that dates back to the late-June accumulation base.
Why Is $0.1751 the Level That Decides ADA's Next Move?
$0.1751 is not an arbitrary line. It is the level that capped the entire post-spike recovery in early July and it sits just above the 23 July rejection wick. Everything ADA has done for four weeks has happened underneath it.
From $0.1638, that resistance is roughly 6.9% away. A clean 3-hour close above $0.1751, ideally with expanding volume rather than a single wick, would break the sequence of lower highs and put the $0.180 area back in play as the first target. Above that, the July high at $0.200 becomes the obvious magnet, and reclaiming it would be the first genuinely bullish monthly signal ADA has produced since spring.
Until then, every push toward $0.175 has to be treated as a supply zone rather than a breakout.
What Happens If Cardano Loses $0.1488?
The bearish scenario is equally well defined. $0.1488 is the first real support beneath current price, around 9.2% lower, and it lines up with the top of the base ADA built through late June.
Lose that on a closing basis and $0.1424 becomes the next stop, roughly 13% below spot. That level is the floor of the June accumulation range, and it is the last structural support before $Cardano is back at the multi-year lows it printed at the end of June, when ADA closed the month near $0.1453 after shedding close to 40%.
The nuance worth flagging: the 27 July low at $0.1535 held comfortably above $0.1488. That is a higher low relative to the June base, and it is the single most constructive thing on this chart.
Is the RSI Signal Strong Enough to Trust?
The 14-period RSI reads 55.89, with its moving average down at 39.27. That gap tells you two things.
First, RSI dipped close to the mid-20s during the 27 July flush, which is a genuinely oversold reading on a 3-hour timeframe, and the bounce came directly off it. Second, RSI has now crossed decisively back above its own signal line, a momentum shift that usually precedes at least a test of overhead resistance.
The caveat is the speed of the move. Going from oversold to 56 in three sessions is a fast repricing, and RSI is now entering the zone where previous July rallies stalled. Momentum is improving, but it is not yet confirming a trend change. That confirmation only comes from a price close above $0.1751.
What Fundamentals Could Support the Cardano Price?
The technical picture is not operating in a vacuum. Cardano has just moved through one of its busiest development stretches: the Van Rossem hard fork took the network to protocol version 11, adding new Plutus built-in functions and updated cost models that reduce the resources needed to run complex smart contracts. It was also the first Cardano upgrade fully ratified through the on-chain Voltaire governance system.
Behind it sits Ouroboros Leios, the scalability overhaul that went to public testnet in June and is targeted for mainnet late in 2026. Charles Hoskinson has framed it as a step change in throughput, with figures in the 10x to 65x range floated by the community, though those numbers still need to survive real-world load.
On-chain, Santiment data showed wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA lifting their share of supply from 37.66% to 38.13% through the June selloff. Whale accumulation into weakness does not time a bottom, but it does explain why $0.1424 has held so far. Working against that, daily transaction counts fell to roughly 17,400 at the end of June, close to a 45-day low, so usage has not yet followed the development activity.
What Are the Key Levels to Watch for ADA?
- Resistance 1: $0.1751, the level that has capped every rally this month
- Resistance 2: $0.180, the 23 July rejection high
- Resistance 3: $0.200, the July peak
- Support 1: $0.1535, the 27 July swing low
- Support 2: $0.1488, first structural support
- Support 3: $0.1424, the June accumulation floor
The base case is continuation of the range: ADA grinding between $0.1488 and $0.1751 while the market waits for a catalyst. The bullish trigger is a 3-hour close above $0.1751. The bearish trigger is a close below $0.1488. Anything in between is noise.
Dubai's flagship carrier has flipped the switch. Emirates has officially launched Crypto.com Pay, allowing customers to use the digital payment solution on the airline's website and app platforms. It makes Emirates the first major Gulf airline to accept cryptocurrency payments for flight bookings, and it turns a 12-month-old paper agreement into a live checkout button.
What exactly did Emirates launch?
Customers with a Crypto.com account booking on emirates.com or the Emirates App can now select Crypto.com Pay at checkout, with transactions processed in compliance with UAE regulatory standards. The option is open to eligible UAE residents for bookings priced and settled in Emirati Dirham (AED).
The rollout is the delivery of a deal signed a year ago. Emirates and Crypto.com signed a Memorandum of Understanding in July 2025 to explore integrating Crypto.com Pay into the airline's payment systems. One notable gap in the announcement: the specific cryptocurrencies accepted have not been spelled out, so the assets available at checkout will depend on what sits in a user's Crypto.com wallet.
Adnan Kazim, Emirates' Deputy President and Chief Commercial Officer, framed it as a generational shift, pointing to younger travellers who "manage their money and plan their journeys primarily from their phones" and expect airlines to keep up.
How does paying for an Emirates flight with crypto work?
The flow splits by device. On mobile, customers booking through the Emirates App are pushed into the Crypto.com app to complete payment from their wallet, then redirected back to the Emirates App for the booking confirmation and e-ticket. On desktop, they pick Crypto.com Pay at the payment step, scan the QR code shown on the booking page and approve the payment in the Crypto.com app, after which the confirmation and e-ticket are issued on screen.
No card, no bank transfer, no manual wallet address. Functionally it behaves like any QR based mobile payment, which is exactly the point.
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Why does the Central Bank licence matter here?
This is the part most travel coverage is glossing over. The integration is powered by Crypto.com's Dubai entity, the first Virtual Asset Service Provider to be granted a Stored Value Facilities (SVF) licence by the Central Bank of the UAE, and it operates inside that SVF framework. emirates
In other words, this is not a crypto payment gateway bolted onto the side of a regulated business. It sits within the UAE's formal financial plumbing, under Central Bank supervision. That is why an airline of this size was willing to put it in front of customers at all. The same licence, granted in May, already lets UAE residents pay government fees with digital assets.
What does this mean for crypto adoption in the UAE?
The state agenda is doing a lot of the work. The launch supports the Dubai Cashless Strategy under the D33 Economic Agenda, which targets 90% of all financial transactions across government and private sectors being digital by the end of 2026. It also builds on Emirates' own digital payments partnership with Dubai Finance, and follows Crypto.com's separate tie-up with Dubai Finance for government service payments.
For Crypto.com, the strategic value is distribution rather than volume. Eric Anziani, the company's President and COO, called the Emirates partnership a milestone for the Pay product. Flight tickets are high ticket, high intent purchases, and an airline with Emirates' brand weight normalises crypto at checkout in a way that a hundred smaller merchant integrations cannot.
The bear case is simple: AED settlement means the crypto leg is a funding rail, not a currency. Users spend digital assets, Emirates receives dirhams. That is the same model that made card-linked crypto spending work, and it is also why it will not, on its own, move the price of anything.
Still, for a sector that has spent a decade promising payments and delivering speculation, a working checkout button on one of the world's largest airlines is a real data point.
Russia now has a comprehensive crypto trading law. The United States, one year after the House passed its own market structure bill by a landslide, still does not. That gap closed in a single week, and this week it got a detail almost too on the nose to be true: the US Senate cleared its floor for a Russia sanctions bill and pushed the crypto bill back again.
What exactly did Russia just pass?
On 21 July 2026, Russia's State Duma completed the second and third readings of bill No. 1194918-8, titled "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights." The vote was not close. It cleared with 340 in favour, after a first reading in April that carried 327 of 340 deputies.
The core provisions:
- Crypto is legally property. Holders get judicial protection in courts, bankruptcy proceedings and divorce settlements, and that protection applies even to assets that were never declared to the authorities.
- Licensed intermediaries only. Exchanges, brokers, custodians, asset managers and exchange service providers go into a single registry supervised by the Bank of Russia. Banks will be required to reject transfers to providers outside it.
- Cross-border settlement is allowed, domestic payment is not. Russian companies can settle foreign trade in crypto. Paying for coffee in Bitcoin inside Russia stays illegal, and the ruble remains sole legal tender.
- Hard retail caps. Non-qualified investors are limited to roughly 300,000 rubles per year, about $3,800, per licensed intermediary. Qualified investors get up to 3 million rubles.
- A liquidity filter on listings. Only assets with an average market cap above 5 trillion rubles, around $64 billion, and average daily volume above 1 trillion rubles, around $12.8 billion, over the prior two years automatically qualify for trading.
The bill still needs Federation Council approval, which has a 14-day window, then Putin's signature within a further 14 days. Main provisions are slated for 1 September 2026, with the licensed-intermediary regime fully enforced from 1 July 2027. Notably, the digital ruble rollout is scheduled for the same 1 September date, so Moscow is launching its CBDC and its private-crypto framework on one timeline.
For context on what is being formalised: Russia's Finance Ministry has estimated domestic crypto trading at roughly 50 billion rubles a day, about $640 million, most of it currently outside any oversight.
Why does this look like Russia's version of the CLARITY Act?
Because it does the one thing the CLARITY Act was written to do. It answers the question "who regulates what, and under which rules can a platform legally operate."
Russia's answer is narrower and far more restrictive than anything Washington has drafted. There is no equivalent of a developer safe harbour, no DeFi carve-out, and retail access is capped at a level a US trader would find absurd. It is regulation by permission slip, and the sanctions motive is explicit: lawmakers stated on the record that the law lets Russian firms pay foreign counterparties in crypto while working around sanctions restrictions.
But it is a rulebook. Firms can read it, budget for it, and know the deadline. That is the comparison that stings.
Where does the US CLARITY Act actually stand right now?
Nowhere new, which is the problem.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, passed the House on 17 July 2025 by 294 to 134, with more than 70 Democrats crossing over. The Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15 to 9 on 14 May 2026. Since then it has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 423. No cloture motion. No floor vote. The White House's informal 4 July signing target came and went.
Senate Republicans released revised text on 22 July, merging the Banking and Agriculture Committee approaches and adding ethics language negotiated with the White House. Senator Cynthia Lummis published it publicly. It did not break the deadlock. A group of pro-crypto Democrats responded that the draft still falls short on ethics provisions, illicit finance and conflicts of interest.
The arithmetic is brutal. Cloture needs 60 votes, meaning roughly seven Democrats on top of a fully unified Republican caucus, and the Republican whip count itself is not clean.
Then came this week. Majority Leader John Thune moved a package of nominations on Monday and a Russia sanctions bill on Tuesday, which pushes any CLARITY floor action to the final days before the 7 August recess. Thune already told reporters on 23 July that he did not expect the bill to pass before the break, though he wants to at least get the process started. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt pushed back and said he would not count out the first week of August.
Prediction markets have voted. Polymarket odds on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 sank to a record low near 32% in mid-July, sat around 38% this week, and Galaxy Research has trimmed its own estimate to about 30%. Stifel's Washington strategist has warned that missing the August recess would cause the bill's prospects to deteriorate materially. After the recess, senators head into midterm campaigning, and even a Senate passage would need the House to approve the amended version.
Is the rest of the world really moving faster than Washington?
Largely yes, and Russia is not even the most striking example.
- Japan approved amendments to its Financial Instruments and Exchange Act on 15 July 2026, reclassifying many blockchain-based assets as financial instruments.
- The European Union has MiCA fully in force, and it has become the template other jurisdictions copy from.
- South Korea has unveiled a national digital asset strategy.
- Vietnam introduced Decree No. 284/2026/NĐ-CP with fines for traders using unlicensed platforms, ahead of launching a licensed market.
- Hong Kong and the UAE continue expanding their licensing regimes, with Dubai's VARA now a default choice for international exchanges.
- The UK is finalising an FCA regime targeted for late 2026 implementation.
The US still runs a multi-agency model where the SEC, CFTC and FinCEN each claim a slice, and the boundaries get drawn by enforcement actions rather than statute. For a compliance officer, that is the worst of both worlds: real legal exposure, no fixed rulebook.
How is this showing up in crypto prices?
Not well, though regulation is only part of it.
Bitcoin opened Tuesday 28 July at $63,706, about 2.5% below Monday's open, and traded in the $63,300 to $63,800 range through the US morning. Ethereum opened at $1,890, down 3.2%. Total crypto market cap sat near $2.26 trillion, off 1.6% on the day, with Bitcoin dominance around 56%. The Fear and Greed Index is at 29, firmly in fear.
Market breadth is the uglier number. Only 29 of the top 100 coins are trading above their 50-day moving averages, and Bitcoin and Ethereum are two of them. That is a market where the majors are holding and everything else is bleeding, which is exactly the pattern you get when institutional flows are cautious and speculative capital has no thesis to price.
Two things are pressing at once. The Federal Reserve opened a two-day meeting on 28 July, and CME FedWatch has the odds of a hike at around 35.8%, up sharply from 25.7% a week earlier. That alone is enough to drain risk appetite. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen recent outflows, pointing to softer institutional demand.
Regulation sits underneath both. The honest read on the CLARITY delay is that it is not a crash catalyst, it is a ceiling. Traders who bought the "market structure passes in 2026" thesis in the first quarter have been unwinding it since, and each slipped deadline removes a reason to add risk rather than adding a reason to sell. Exchanges cannot finalise listing strategy, token issuers cannot plan disclosures, and ETF issuers cannot expand product lines beyond what the current agency posture allows. That is capital sitting on the sidelines, not capital fleeing.
The mirror image is worth noting too. Russia's framework is restrictive enough that it will not import much new demand. Retail caps of $3,800 a year and a listing filter that only clears the very largest assets do not create a bid. What it creates is a legal channel for cross-border settlement, and that matters more for stablecoin flows and commodity trade than for altcoin prices.
What should traders watch next?
Four concrete markers:
- Whether Thune files cloture at all before 7 August. Starting the floor process, even on a failing vote, forces senators on the record and can unlock negotiations in September.
- Whether the ethics language gets bipartisan sign-off. That single issue is the gating item, not the market structure text itself.
- Putin's signature and the 1 September date. Watch whether the effective date holds, since the original target was 1 July and already slipped once.
- Actual Russian volume data in Q4. Passage of a law is not adoption. The real signal is which counterparties start routing trade through Bank of Russia-licensed venues.
If CLARITY misses the recess and the September window closes, 2027 becomes the base case, and the agency framework carries the load in the meantime. That is a longer stretch of the same limbo the market has already priced.
Crypto is red across the board today, and for once the trigger did not come from crypto at all. It came from a single subscription-only tech report about lithography machines in Shanghai. That story took down South Korea's stock market, dragged the entire AI hardware complex with it, and landed on a crypto market that was already sitting on its hands ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision.
Here is what actually happened, in order of importance.
How far has crypto fallen today?
$Bitcoin broke back below $64,000 on July 28, trading around $63,150 and down roughly 2.8% over 24 hours. It is the third time BTC has cracked that level since July 24, and each break has come with a liquidation cascade attached. Today's flush wiped out about $100 million in leveraged positions inside a single hour. The July 24 version was larger, at roughly $87 million.
Altcoins took the harder hit, as usual:
- Ethereum ($ETH): around $1,872, down about 3.5%
- $XRP: around $1.05, down about 4.4%
- Solana ($SOL): around $73, down about 4.1%
- Hyperliquid ($HYPE): around $56, down about 6%
Total crypto market capitalisation sits near $2.16 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance above 56%. That dominance number matters: capital is not rotating into altcoins on this dip, it is consolidating into the largest asset or leaving entirely.
Why did a Chinese chip machine crash the crypto market?
This is the actual catalyst, and it is worth understanding properly because it explains the timing.
On July 27, The Information reported that a Shanghai-based, state-backed manufacturer has started mass-producing immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines. First deliveries go to SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor and ChangXin Memory Technologies this year. Volumes are small, roughly five machines in 2026 rising to about twenty in 2027, and the tools reportedly still trail ASML on performance and reliability.
Small volumes, big implications. US and Dutch export controls have blocked China from buying advanced EUV systems, which made ASML's older immersion DUV machines one of its most important China revenue lines. If Chinese fabs can now source comparable tools domestically, that revenue has a ceiling.
Markets did not wait for the qualification data. ASML fell between 6% and 8%. Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA followed. Then Asia opened and it got worse: the Kospi closed 10.8% lower at 6,023.66, triggering a circuit breaker, with Samsung Electronics down 13.4% and SK Hynix down 14.7%. Between them those two names are close to half the index. The Nikkei fell about 4% and Taiwan's Taiex about 4.7%.
Crypto does not have a lithography exposure. What it has is a correlation problem. Institutional allocators increasingly hold digital assets inside the same technology risk book as AI infrastructure names, so a sector-wide de-risking event sells Bitcoin whether or not the news has anything to do with it.
The closest precedent is DeepSeek's R1 release in January 2025, which triggered an identical one-day repricing of AI infrastructure. AI capex did not actually fall afterwards. It accelerated. Worth remembering before treating today as structural.
Is the Fed decision the real reason crypto is down?
It is the reason nobody is buying the dip.
The FOMC opened its two-day meeting on July 28 under chair Kevin Warsh, with the federal funds rate held at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting. The policy statement lands at 2pm Eastern on July 29.
A hold is the base case. CME FedWatch and prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi have put hold probability in the 70% to 93% range through July. The important detail is what the residual probability points at: a hike, not a cut. The reescalation of the Iran conflict and the energy prices that came with it have pushed the entire 2026 rate-cut timeline later across multiple forecasts.
For a market that spent the first half of 2026 waiting for monetary relief, that is the single most bearish framing available. There is no rescue priced in for this month.
Traders are not fully bearish either. Options and leverage positioning has clustered between the $65,000 and $70,000 strikes, and roughly $2.5 billion in notional BTC call spreads expire on July 31. That is why $64,000 keeps getting tested from both sides instead of breaking cleanly.
What does the stalled CLARITY Act mean for crypto?
Washington added a crypto-specific layer to the macro problem.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed last week that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will not pass before the August recess. His exact framing left a crack open, saying he would like to at least get the bill started and see where the votes are, but the arithmetic is unkind. The bill needs 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats. No Democrat currently supports the text.
The sticking point is an ethics standoff over conflicts of interest tied to the President's crypto business interests, plus unresolved fights over stablecoin yield restrictions and developer protections.
Prediction markets have repriced accordingly: Polymarket odds on 2026 passage fell to roughly 37%, down from above 80% earlier this year. Industry support has never been broader, with BlackRock, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs and Franklin Templeton all publicly behind the bill, and it still is not enough. Miss the pre-recess window and the next realistic opening is a narrow post-midterm one.
Practically, this means US market structure stays governed by executive orders and agency discretion rather than statute, and DeFi, Layer 2 networks and yield-bearing stablecoins keep operating without legal certainty.
Why does USD/JPY at 164 matter for Bitcoin?
Because it is the one item on this list that can turn a correction into a cascade.
The yen approached 164 per dollar on July 24, a level last seen in 1986, prompting another warning from Japanese authorities that they are prepared to intervene. Japan has already spent roughly $74 billion defending the currency since late April. It did not work, and local commentary has started treating the 160s as the new normal.
That is the setup that concerns leveraged traders. Reporting on July 22 indicated officials are discussing raising rates faster than markets expect, and swap pricing now implies roughly an 80% chance of a hike to 1.25% in October, up from around 70%. If the yen spikes suddenly, whether from intervention or a hawkish surprise, yen-funded carry positions get margin-called and the forced selling hits everything at once. That is the August 2024 playbook, and it took Bitcoin down about 30% at the time.
Nothing has broken yet. But a market this close to an intervention threshold explains why nobody wants size on the books going into a Fed statement.
Are AI spending fears dragging crypto lower?
Yes, and this predates today.
Investors have been openly sceptical about the capital expenditure required for AI infrastructure, and the tape is showing it. SpaceX has erased more than $1.2 trillion in market cap since its June high, falling for the 13th session out of the last 16. Nvidia and the wider AI complex sold off last week even as Bitcoin held near $65,000.
Add thinning demand from the ETF channel. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows above $200 million across July 23 and 24, breaking a seven-session inflow streak worth close to $1 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs managed a modest $9.23 million net inflow on July 27, which is functionally flat.
When the largest structural buyer steps back and market depth thins out, the same order flow moves price further. Kaiko has flagged declining depth across major exchanges all year. That is the mechanical reason today's drop feels sharper than the headline percentages suggest.
What happens next for Bitcoin?
Three things resolve inside the next week, and none of them have resolved yet.
The Fed statement arrives July 29 at 2pm Eastern. The CLARITY Act either starts its Senate floor process in early August or it does not. And the July 31 options expiry unwinds the call spread positioning that has been quietly supporting the $65,000 to $70,000 zone.
Levels traders are watching: $64,000 has been the battleground all month, with the June low near $58,000 as the structural floor beneath it. On the total market cap chart, $2.15 trillion is the line that matters. Above it, this is a range. Below it, the June lows come back into play.
Sentiment is already cautious rather than panicked, with the Fear and Greed Index reading in the high 20s. That is not capitulation. It is also not a market positioned for good news.
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The single most important chart for crypto traders this week is not Bitcoin. It is crude oil.
WTI gapped straight down at Sunday's open, tearing a hole in the chart that took it from roughly $91.7 on Friday's close to $85.3 within minutes. It has since drifted lower to $84.04. Measured from last week's high near $94.3, that is a decline of almost 11% in three sessions.
The trigger was diplomatic, not economic. Washington quietly halted its bombing campaign against Iran late on Friday after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, Tehran responded by suspending its own retaliation, and talks resumed in Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent, which had touched $102 last week, dropped more than 7% in the first minutes of Monday trading.
Crypto noticed immediately. $Bitcoin pushed back through $65,000, Ether ran to a two-month high near $2,000, and the total market gained around 1.7%. Here is why the two are connected, and why the connection is more fragile than it looks.
What Actually Happened Over the Weekend?
The pause was never formally announced, which is part of what makes it unstable.
The US stopped striking Iranian targets after Friday night. Iranian officials then signalled through Reuters that Tehran would refrain from attacks for as long as Washington did the same. Mediators in Oman continued working on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carried roughly a fifth of global oil and gas before the conflict and has been effectively closed for months.
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz framed the halt as room for diplomacy to work, while confirming that additional military assets are moving into the region in case it does not. Reporting also suggests Trump's advisers had warned that the campaign was running short of viable targets.
There is no signed agreement here. There is an absence of shooting, which is not the same thing.
How Far Has Oil Actually Fallen?
Price spent the week from July 21 grinding steadily higher: $83.5, then $86, then a push to $89 on July 22, then a run through $90 into a peak of roughly $94.3 late on July 23. That was pure war premium being priced in, one headline at a time.
The fade began on July 24. WTI slipped from $94.3 back toward $90, bounced to $91.7 into the weekend close, and then gapped. The entire five-day climb was erased in a single, untradeable move while the market was shut.
That is the important detail. This was not a sell-off. It was a repricing that happened when nobody could react, which is why the follow-through matters more than the gap itself. So far the follow-through is bearish: WTI bounced to $86.4 on Monday morning, failed, and made a new low near $83.6 before stabilising around $84.
For context, pre-war Brent traded near $72. Even after an 11% collapse, there is still a substantial war premium embedded in the price. Oil is not back to normal. It is back to elevated.
Why Does the Oil Price Matter for Bitcoin?
Because oil is the transmission belt between the Middle East and your portfolio, and the mechanism runs through the Federal Reserve.
The chain works like this. Higher crude feeds into headline inflation. Higher inflation forces a more hawkish central bank. A more hawkish central bank means tighter liquidity and a stronger dollar. And tighter liquidity is poison for the longest-duration, highest-beta assets on the board, which is exactly what crypto is.
That chain was visibly tightening through July. US inflation has been running near 3.7%, well above the 2% target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has committed publicly to bringing it back down. As oil surged past $100, the market-implied probability of a rate hike at this week's meeting jumped from around 12% to roughly 38% in a single week.
Cheaper oil pulls that chain slack. The 10-year Treasury yield has already retreated to 4.64% from six-month highs, the dollar weakened against every G10 currency on Monday, and gold pushed back above $4,100.
In short: the oil crash is a liquidity story dressed up as a geopolitics story. Crypto is trading the liquidity.
How Is the Crypto Market Reacting?
Bitcoin cleared the $64,800 to $65,000 resistance zone it had been stuck under and now trades around $65,300, up roughly 1.2% on the day. Market cap is back above $1.3 trillion and BTC dominance sits just under 57%.
Ether is the standout. ETH gained more than 3% to trade near $1,958, its highest level in 55 days and within touching distance of $2,000. Solana and XRP added 1% to 2%. The pattern of ETH outperforming BTC is the classic signature of a risk-on rotation rather than a defensive bid.
Two caveats stop this from being a clean bullish picture.
First, the flows have not turned yet. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed around $225 million on Thursday and another $240 million on Friday, with roughly 90% of that coming out of IBIT alone. That wipes out most of July's accumulated inflows. Price has recovered. Institutional money has not come back.
Second, sentiment is still poor. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in Fear territory, even though it has improved off its recent extremes. Crypto equities also took a beating on Friday, with miners including Cipher, Iren and CleanSpark falling between 7% and 10%, and Coinbase and Strategy each down about 2%.
This looks like a relief rally in a market that is still nervous, not the start of a new leg.
Have We Seen This Movie Before?
Yes, and it is worth remembering how it ended.
In March 2026, Trump ordered a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and described talks as constructive. WTI plunged more than 10% in a single session. Crypto and equities rallied on the same logic being applied today. Within 24 hours, Iranian state media denied that any negotiations were taking place and characterised the pause as an attempt to manage financial markets. WTI climbed straight back above $91.
The setup in July is not identical. This time Iran has actually confirmed a reciprocal halt, and Oman is hosting live talks on Hormuz. But the structural risk is the same: the entire trade rests on a verbal understanding with no enforcement mechanism, and both sides retain the ability to break it overnight.
The Houthis, meanwhile, have not paused anything. They stepped up attacks on Red Sea shipping over the weekend and struck Saudi energy assets. Hormuz traffic remains a trickle.
What Should Crypto Traders Watch This Week?
This is arguably the densest macro week of 2026 for risk assets.
- Wednesday, July 29, 2:00 PM ET. The FOMC rate decision, with no dot plot attached. The base case is a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, but a hike is genuinely live at roughly one-in-three odds. Critically, the oil crash landed 48 hours before the decision, which arguably takes some of the urgency out of the hawkish case. If Warsh acknowledges that energy-driven inflation pressure has eased, that is the bullish trigger. If he leans hawkish anyway, the relief rally dies quickly.
- Mega-cap earnings. Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon all report this week. Crypto has traded in near lockstep with the Nasdaq for most of 2026, so these matter more than most crypto-native catalysts. Coinbase reports Thursday.
- ETF flow data. Watch whether the Thursday and Friday outflows reverse. Price recovering without flows recovering is a warning sign.
- Oil itself. If WTI holds below $85 and grinds toward the pre-war $72 to $75 zone, the inflation argument collapses and crypto gets a sustained tailwind. If a single headline breaks the truce and crude gaps back above $90, expect the whole relief rally to unwind just as fast as it arrived.
What will happen to Crypto Next?
The oil crash is real, it is significant, and it removes the single biggest macro headwind crypto has faced this month. Bitcoin above $65,000 and ETH testing $2,000 are the direct consequence.
But this is a ceasefire without a treaty, priced by a market that has already been fooled once this year. The FOMC on Wednesday will decide whether the relief becomes a trend or stays a bounce.
Trade the reaction, not the narrative.
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Blockonomi
TLDR
- Fortinet stock jumps 11% after hours as second-quarter growth beats expectations
- Product revenue climbs 52% as demand strengthens across security platforms globally
- Quarterly revenue rises 26% to $2.05 billion on stronger product sales momentum
- Billings increase 33% to $2.37 billion as customer security spending accelerates
- Fortinet keeps 2026 guidance firm with annual revenue projected above $8.02 billion
Fortinet (FTNT) stock rose 2.16% to close at $153.22, then surged 11.00% after hours to $170.08. The move followed strong second-quarter growth across revenue, product sales, billings, earnings, and cash generation. Demand for integrated cybersecurity platforms strengthened as enterprises expanded network, cloud, endpoint, and security operations spending.
Fortinet, Inc., FTNT
Fortinet Revenue and Earnings Accelerate
Fortinet reported second-quarter revenue of $2.05 billion, representing 26% growth from the previous year. Product revenue climbed 52% to $773 million, reflecting stronger demand for hardware and integrated security systems. Meanwhile, billings increased 33% to $2.37 billion, showing continued customer spending and contract activity.
The company posted a 34% GAAP operating margin and a 38% non-GAAP operating margin. GAAP earnings per share rose 44% to $0.82, while adjusted earnings increased 41% to $0.90. Therefore, Fortinet converted faster sales growth into stronger profitability during the quarter.
Operating cash flow reached $1.04 billion, while free cash flow totaled $966 million. These results gave Fortinet additional capacity to fund development, partnerships, and product expansion. At the same time, the cash performance supported Fortinet stock’s sharp after-hours rally following the earnings release.
Cybersecurity Products Expand Fortinet’s Market Reach
Fortinet expanded its platform during the quarter through new firewall, endpoint, and security operations products. The FortiGate 1200G series combined local enforcement with cloud-delivered security for hybrid infrastructure and sovereignty requirements. In addition, FortiSOC brought six security operations functions into one cloud-delivered platform.
FortiEndpoint also combined several endpoint security tools into one agent for simpler risk management. The product targets teams managing data protection, device security, and broader technology adoption. Together, these launches strengthened Fortinet’s position across networking, endpoint protection, and security operations.
Fortinet also started a strategic collaboration with Intel to develop its sixth-generation security processor. The agreement combines Fortinet’s processor knowledge with Intel’s design, packaging, development, and manufacturing capabilities. Consequently, Fortinet expects faster processor development and a more resilient global supply chain.
Fortinet Guidance Supports Continued Growth
For the third quarter, Fortinet projected revenue between $2.01 billion and $2.10 billion. The company expects billings between $2.25 billion and $2.35 billion during the same period. It also forecast adjusted earnings between $0.83 and $0.87 per diluted share.
Fortinet expects a third-quarter non-GAAP gross margin between 79% and 81%. It also projected a non-GAAP operating margin between 35% and 37%. These ranges indicate management expects profitability to remain high as revenue and billings continue growing.
For 2026, Fortinet forecast revenue between $8.02 billion and $8.18 billion. The company expects annual billings between $9.35 billion and $9.55 billion. It projected adjusted earnings between $3.41 and $3.47 per share, alongside service revenue above $5.18 billion.
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TLDR
- Microsoft shares rebound 2.51% after hours to $400.35 following Q4 earnings
- Quarterly revenue rises 18% to $90 billion as cloud sales strengthen further
- Azure revenue grows 43% and tops $100 billion for the full 2026 fiscal year
- GAAP net income climbs 31% to $35.8 billion while diluted EPS reaches $4.81
- Windows and Xbox revenue decline while Microsoft cloud demand remains strong
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) stock fell 0.71% to $390.54, then rose 2.51% after hours to $400.35 following quarterly results. Fourth-quarter revenue reached $90.0 billion, while rapid Azure growth supported the rebound. However, weaker Windows and Xbox revenue showed mixed performance across Microsoft’s wider business.
Microsoft Corporation, MSFT
Microsoft Q4 Revenue and Earnings Rise
Microsoft reported an 18% revenue increase for its fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30, 2026. Operating income rose 18% to $40.6 billion, while GAAP net income increased 31% to $35.8 billion. GAAP diluted earnings per share climbed 32% to $4.81, beating management’s earlier forecast.
Non-GAAP net income advanced 22% to $35.3 billion, while adjusted diluted earnings reached $4.74. Several discrete items added $0.27 to diluted earnings per share versus Microsoft’s April guidance. These included an Anthropic investment gain and lower retirement costs, partly offset by severance expenses.
Microsoft also recorded Xbox impairment charges, which reduced part of the quarterly earnings benefit. After adjustments, revenue, operating income, and diluted earnings per share still exceeded Microsoft’s expectations. Strong cloud sales helped Microsoft expand profit while maintaining substantial investment in data infrastructure.
Azure Growth Drives Microsoft Cloud Results
Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43%, leading Microsoft’s main business lines. Microsoft Cloud revenue increased 27% to $59.3 billion as demand for infrastructure and software remained strong. Commercial remaining performance obligations jumped 84% to $678 billion, expanding Microsoft’s contracted revenue base.
Azure surpassed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time during fiscal 2026. Microsoft 365 Copilot also exceeded 30 million paid seats as companies expanded workplace automation use. These gains strengthened Microsoft’s position across cloud infrastructure, productivity software, and artificial intelligence services.
Intelligent Cloud revenue rose 32% to $39.3 billion, making it Microsoft’s fastest-growing operating segment. Productivity and Business Processes revenue increased 14% to $37.8 billion, supported by Microsoft 365 and LinkedIn. Dynamics 365 revenue grew 13%, while Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue advanced 24%.
Full-Year Profit Rises Despite Gaming Weakness
More Personal Computing revenue declined 4% to $12.9 billion as Windows and gaming weakened. Windows OEM and Devices revenue fell 7%, while Xbox content and services revenue dropped 10%. Search advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs increased 10%, partly limiting the segment decline.
For fiscal 2026, Microsoft generated $331.8 billion in revenue, an 18% annual increase. Operating income climbed 21% to $155.2 billion, while GAAP net income rose 31% to $133.7 billion. GAAP diluted earnings per share increased 32% to $17.95, reflecting stronger companywide profitability.
Microsoft produced $55.4 billion in quarterly operating cash flow and $182.9 billion for the full year. Property and equipment additions reached $35.8 billion during the quarter and $115.9 billion during fiscal 2026. The company returned $10.2 billion through dividends and share repurchases while funding continued infrastructure expansion.
The post Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Stock: Rebounds as Q4 Revenue Hits $90 Billion and Azure Tops $100 Billion appeared first on Blockonomi.
TLDR
- Robinhood shares dropped after hours despite strong second-quarter growth in Q2.
- Q2 revenue climbed 32% to $1.31 billion as trading activity reached records.
- Net income surged 48% to $573 million, while diluted EPS increased to $0.62.
- Crypto revenue fell 38% even as options and equities revenue increased sharply.
- Platform assets reached $369 billion while Gold subscribers hit 4.8 million.
Robinhood (HOOD) stock fell 3.15% to close at $89.84, then dropped 4.09% after hours to $86.17. The decline followed second-quarter results showing strong revenue, profit, account growth, and trading activity. However, weaker cryptocurrency revenue and higher operating costs weighed on the after-hours response.
Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD
Robinhood Stock Falls Despite Revenue Growth
Robinhood reported total net revenue of $1.31 billion, representing a 32% increase from the previous year. Transaction-based revenue climbed 44% to $776 million, supported by options, equities, and event contracts. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency revenue fell 38% to $100 million and partly offset stronger trading results elsewhere.
Net interest revenue rose 9% to $389 million as interest-earning assets expanded across the platform. Other revenue increased 54% to $143 million, supported by subscriptions and Trump Account service fees. These gains helped Robinhood produce broader revenue growth across several business lines during the quarter.
Net income increased 48% to $573 million, while diluted earnings reached $0.62 per share. The results included $129 million in gains linked mainly to Robinhood Ventures Fund I deconsolidation. Adjusted EBITDA rose 35% to $741 million, while total buybacks reached $1.3 billion since Q3 2024.
Customer Assets and Trading Volumes Reach Records
Funded customers increased 7% to 28.4 million, while investment accounts rose 9% to 29.9 million. Total platform assets advanced 32% to $369 billion, supported by deposits and higher equity valuations. Robinhood also recorded $21.7 billion in quarterly net deposits, equal to a 28% annualized growth rate.
Robinhood Gold subscribers increased 39% to 4.8 million, while average revenue per user rose 24% to $187. Retirement assets climbed 82% to $34.5 billion, and the margin book expanded 127% to $21.6 billion. Cash and deposits also reached $18.7 billion after increasing 34% from the previous year.
Equity trading volume jumped 85% to a record $956 billion during the second quarter. Options contracts increased 50% to 774 million, while event contracts exceeded 13.6 billion. Crypto trading volume totaled $40 billion, including $22 billion from Bitstamp and $18 billion through Robinhood.
New Products Expand Robinhood’s Business Mix
Robinhood Legend surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue about 18 months after its customer rollout. The company also said nearly 100,000 customers opened Agentic Trading accounts holding over $100 million. Prediction markets expanded through Rothera, its exchange venture with Susquehanna International Group.
The Robinhood Gold Card passed one million customers and reached $17 billion in annualized purchase volume. Robinhood Banking held more than $3 billion in deposits from over 240,000 funded customers. Robinhood Strategies also reached nearly $2 billion in managed assets across more than 300,000 customers.
International funded customers exceeded one million as Robinhood expanded its global financial services footprint. The company completed its WonderFi acquisition and launched Robinhood Chain’s public mainnet for financial applications. It also added stock tokens, decentralized lending, European perpetual futures, and planned United Kingdom cryptocurrency services.
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TLDR
- Starbucks global comparable sales rose 7.9% as customer traffic strengthened.
- North America revenue climbed 7% to $7.4 billion on stronger overall store demand.
- GAAP earnings per share jumped 86% to $0.91 during the fiscal third quarter.
- International margins widened sharply despite lower revenue after the China deal.
- SBUX gained 6.83% after hours as stronger sales and margins lifted sentiment.
Starbucks (SBUX) shares reported stronger comparable sales and earnings for its fiscal third quarter ended June 28, 2026. SBUX closed at $104.14, up 1.01%, then surged 6.83% after hours to $111.25. Improved traffic, higher customer spending, and wider margins supported the post-market advance.
Starbucks Corporation, SBUX
Global Comparable Sales Rise 7.9%
Global comparable store sales increased 7.9% during Starbucks’ fiscal third quarter. Comparable transactions rose 4.2%, while average ticket increased 3.5%. Therefore, the company recorded balanced growth from customer visits and spending across major markets.
North America comparable sales increased 8.1% during the quarter. Transactions climbed 4.5%, while average ticket rose 3.5%. United States comparable sales advanced 7.9% on higher traffic and spending.
International comparable sales increased 5.7% from the previous year. Transactions rose 2.6%, while average ticket increased 3.1%. Starbucks also opened 175 net new stores and ended the quarter with 41,304 locations worldwide.
North America Revenue Reaches $7.4 Billion
North America revenue increased 7% to $7.4 billion during the quarter. Higher company-operated store sales supported the increase across delivery, food, and customized beverages. Those gains reflected stronger customer demand and improved store activity throughout the quarter.
North America operating income increased 10% to $1.0 billion. Operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 13.6% from 13.3% one year earlier. Sales leverage and lower inflation helped offset labor spending and restructuring costs.
The company ended the quarter with 18,371 North American stores. That total fell 2% from the previous year after store closures and portfolio adjustments. United States stores represented 41% of Starbucks’ global portfolio, with 16,933 locations.
Earnings and Margins Strengthen
Consolidated net revenue decreased 1% to $9.3 billion, but GAAP operating margin expanded 60 basis points to 10.5%. Meanwhile, non-GAAP operating margin increased 430 basis points to 14.4%. Lower inflation, sales leverage, and tariff refunds supported the stronger profitability.
GAAP earnings per share rose 86% to $0.91, while non-GAAP earnings increased 70% to $0.85. Starbucks also used China sale proceeds to repurchase about $1.3 billion of outstanding notes. The licensed joint venture model reduced international revenue 34% but expanded the segment’s margin by 550 basis points.
Channel Development revenue increased 22% to $587.9 million, while operating income rose 40% to $306.2 million. The segment’s operating margin expanded 700 basis points, supported by alliance growth and tariff refunds. Starbucks continues its Back to Starbucks plan, targeting stronger service, store execution, customer connection, and long-term value.
The post Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock: Q3 Comparable Sales Rise 7.9% as North America Revenue Reaches $7.4 Billion appeared first on Blockonomi.
TLDR
- Meta shares plunged 6.25% after hours despite a strong 28% revenue increase.
- Quarterly costs surged 55% as legal and severance charges pressured profit.
- Net income fell 14% while diluted earnings declined 13% to $6.18 per share.
- Capital spending reached $31.08 billion and reduced free cash flow sharply.
- Advertising stayed strong as impressions rose 14% and ad prices gained 12%.
Meta Platforms (META) stock sank after hours as surging costs and weaker profits overshadowed sharp second-quarter revenue growth across its businesses. Shares fell 1.31% to close at $585.61, then plunged another 6.25% after hours to $549.00 following Wednesday’s earnings release. Although advertising strengthened, higher legal charges, severance expenses, and capital spending weighed heavily on the company’s quarterly financial performance.
Meta Platforms, Inc., META
Revenue Growth Fails to Offset Profit Pressure
Meta generated second-quarter revenue of $60.80 billion, marking a 28% increase from $47.52 billion during the comparable previous-year quarter. On a constant-currency basis, revenue rose 27%, confirming broad expansion across the company’s major global markets and advertising operations. Meanwhile, advertising demand remained firm as impressions increased 14% and average prices per advertisement climbed 12% from last year.
Total costs and expenses surged 55% to $42.03 billion, far exceeding the company’s revenue growth rate during the quarter. Meta recorded $2.40 billion in legal charges and $1.18 billion in severance expenses connected with recent workforce restructuring actions. These items followed the May 2026 workforce reduction and placed significant pressure on operating earnings, margins, and quarterly profitability.
Operating income fell 8% to $18.78 billion, while the reported operating margin narrowed sharply to 31% from 43%. Net income declined 14% to $15.85 billion, compared with $18.34 billion reported during the same quarter one year earlier. Diluted earnings also dropped 13% to $6.18 per share, highlighting how accelerating expenses weakened quarterly profitability and earnings quality.
Capital Spending Restrains Free Cash Flow
Meta committed $31.08 billion to capital expenditures, including principal payments connected with finance leases and companywide infrastructure expansion projects. The company continued expanding data centers, computing capacity, and systems supporting advertising, consumer products, and future enterprise opportunities worldwide. As a result, free cash flow reached only $784 million despite operating cash flow totaling $31.86 billion for the quarter.
Meta ended June with $90.26 billion in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities, supporting continued investment and operating flexibility. Long-term debt reached $83.66 billion, while the company returned $1.35 billion through dividends and related dividend-equivalent payments during the quarter. Therefore, Meta retained substantial liquidity, although expanding debt and investment commitments increased demands across its balance sheet.
Family daily active people averaged 3.60 billion in June, representing a 3% increase from the same month last year. Meta reported 75,472 employees, down 1%, while still counting about 8,000 workers affected by the May reduction. The company expects most affected employees to leave during the third quarter as it tightens workforce management and controls costs.
The post Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Stock: Sinks as Q2 Costs Surge 55% and Revenue Jumps 28% appeared first on Blockonomi.
CryptoPotato
Bitcoin extended its positive run last week with a minor 1% weekly gain, marking its fourth straight weekly advance for the first time since April. Even so, the rally showed signs of losing momentum after a sharp midweek reversal weakened buying pressure.
The cryptocurrency climbed to a weekly high of $67,000 on Tuesday before dropping 5% as short-term holders sold near their breakeven level. The decline reinforced resistance overhead and showed that buyers are still struggling to push Bitcoin beyond its recent trading range.
Institutional Demand Remains Under Pressure
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the short-term holder cost basis has stabilized near $68,500. The metric had gradually moved closer to spot prices over the past month. Analysts said this level has become a key resistance area that will likely require stronger demand for Bitcoin to break above it.
So far, that demand has remained limited despite recent ETF inflows. The report said institutional participation continues to weaken. Specifically, CME Bitcoin futures fell below $6 billion, while options reached a September 2023 low.
ETF flows also reflected that softer demand beneath the surface. Despite this, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight week of net inflows totaling $33.9 million. However, they also saw $465.2 million in outflows on Thursday and Friday, while BlackRock’s IBIT turned net negative.
Macro Risks Add to Bitcoin’s Cautious Outlook
Another sign of softer institutional participation is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained below zero for more than 60 consecutive trading days. Bitfinex described current market conditions as a typical summer slowdown, with 30-day spot trading volumes at just 62.4% of their yearly average.
Beyond weaker market activity, broader economic conditions are adding uncertainty to Bitcoin’s outlook. Rising US diesel prices continue to pressure transport and production costs, raising the risk that inflation could remain elevated.
Meanwhile, higher inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path, while futures markets assign about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.
The report also noted that the US 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.43%, approaching a level that could pressure risk assets. As a result, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $63,000 and $68,500, awaiting stronger demand or fresh catalysts.
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“BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory,” stated Fidelity in its Q3 Signals Report on Tuesday.
However, bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its all-time high, which is still shallow compared to previous bear market bottoms.
October Eyed as Key Cycle Timeframe
The Yardstick metric compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to network hashrate via a normalized Z-score, with values below -1 standard deviation indicating undervaluation.
It essentially measures whether the asset is trading at a fair price relative to the “energy cost” of its security. Low or negative readings signal undervaluation or cheap bitcoin, while high readings signal overvaluation and expensive BTC. The metric has been firmly in the “undervalued” zone for 83% of the past 92 days.
Bitcoin miners have faced increasing pressure as prices have fallen, yet the total hash rate has only fallen around 22% from its peak, “highlighting miner resilience.”
“As a result, the Yardstick is currently hovering near historic lows. This suggests BTC may be trading at a substantial discount relative to the energy securing the network.”
Two signals we’re watching are approaching significant levels.
BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory.
Could the market be nearing a bottom?
Explore the data in our Q3 2026 Signals Report… pic.twitter.com/XsliCQG9Lx
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) July 28, 2026
This has likely happened because this cycle has lower price volatility than previous ones, and the mining industry has matured, with miners now managing energy costs more efficiently, said Fidelity.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms, which lasted almost 300 days in previous cycles.
“This bear market has experienced 203 days to date, suggesting October 2026 may represent a key timeframe for investors focused on cycle dynamics.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said, “Bitcoin is approaching a historically important zone.” BTC’s long-term holder to short-term holder realized cap ratio has reached 3.9, approaching the level above 4 that preceded major price bottoms in previous cycles.
The metric shows realized capital increasingly concentrated among long-term holders with strong conviction, while short-term speculative participation remains weak, indicating an advanced accumulation phase.
“This does not guarantee that the exact bottom is already in, but it shows that the market is approaching a zone previously associated with major cycle bottoms.”
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin has retreated by 5.5% from its five-week high of $67,000 on July 21, falling to just under $63,000 on Tuesday. However, the asset has made a minor recovery to tap $64,000 three times over the past 12 hours, failing to break resistance there.
Swissblock reported on Wednesday that Bitcoin’s “reconstruction phase” has hit another obstacle as momentum has escaped its most extreme negative readings but has now stalled.
“The structure continues to stabilize, but buying participation has not expanded enough to carry price forward,” they said.
The post Fidelity Flags October and Bitcoin Bottom as ‘Yardstick’ Hits Historic Lows appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Law enforcement groups backed by key Democrats have suggested some changes to the CLARITY Act that would make it easier to prosecute some crypto software developers.
However, White House officials still feel like the suggestions made fall short of what they want.
Trump’s Crypto Adviser Rejects Proposal
Trump’s crypto adviser, Patrick Witt, dismissed the proposal, saying claims that they were the result of “productive negotiations” with the White House and Treasury were far from the truth. He added that the administration had made its position clear to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto for weeks and that the latest revision was “not even close” to meeting its expectations.
A report from Politico shows that two major groups representing U.S. prosecutors have submitted fresh changes to the White House, aiming to break months of deadlock over the CLARITY Act.
“Newest language is the culmination of productive negotiations with law enforcement, the White House, and Treasury, and we feel good about the chance to resolve this issue once and for all,” said Masto in a statement.
The proposal focuses on the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), with the new language removing provisions that could protect developers from criminal prosecution in some cases. At the heart of the dispute is whether law enforcement should hold crypto developers responsible for crimes committed on the platforms they build.
The Trump administration says that the authorities should protect builders who do not hold customer funds to encourage innovation. On the other side, critics and law enforcement groups disagree, warning that the current language could make it easier for financial crimes to go unchecked.
New York Attorney General Letitia James also shares the sentiment, having recently said that the CLARITY Act could weaken state enforcement against crypto fraud. According to her, this is because the legislation would limit the state’s ability to hold digital asset firms accountable for crimes.
Police Groups and Security Officials Rally Behind Clarity Act
Not everyone seems to be against the latest revision, though. The Fraternal Order of Police, the largest police organization in the U.S., recently dropped its objections and backed the crypto bill after previously raising concerns about the BRCA.
The report also says several other groups have backed the legislation, including the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives and the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association.
Last month, over 160 former national security, intelligence, and other officials also wrote a letter to the Senate in support of the bill, arguing that it would strengthen efforts to combat illicit finance in the crypto space.
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Although there was some uncertainty about the monetary direction the United States Federal Reserve will take following the July FOMC meeting, the central bank approved with a 9-3 vote to maintain the interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
All eyes have turned to the incoming press conference by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, as investors anticipate which way he will lean.
“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system,” reads the statement.
As reported earlier today, this meeting was described as the most unpredictable since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in March 2020. The reason for this is that all meetings since then had a 99% agreement about the outcome ahead of their conclusion.
In contrast, futures markets and prediction platforms had assigned a 30%-38% probability for a rate hike for today’s meeting.
Investors apparently had de-risked from more volatile assets like bitcoin ahead of the event today, as the asset slumped by $3,000 yesterday. It rebounded to $64,500 today, where it was rejected and slipped to under $63,800 before the meeting.
Its minor volatility returned after the announcement, pumping above $64,000 as of now. However, it’s likely that the Warsh speech will impact it even more, especially if the new Fed chair hints at what the central bank will do next – a rate hike or another pause.
The post Bitcoin Volatility Returns After Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Solana’s native token has been underperforming during the persistent bear market, but some analysts view the current levels as great buying opportunities.
Others believe the asset is at a critical turning point, suggesting that a further 30% crash is not out of the question.
More Bleeding?
SOL has been in a major decline lately, with X user WIZZ noting that it has logged nine consecutive red months and is at risk of closing a tenth – something unseen in its history. Ivan on Tech said people should respect the trend and take it as a warning that the price could slip further in the near future.
As of this writing, it trades at around $74 or very close to the $73.75 mark, which the popular analyst Ali Martinez labeled a “make-or-break” moment. He outlined that more than 50 million SOL were bought around that level, making it the most critical support on the map. Martinez thinks that a sustained close under the key zone might trigger additional selling pressure, with $60 becoming the next major downside target.
“Below that, there is little meaningful support until $50,” he added.
Shortly after, the analyst claimed that SOL has lost its rising channel, arguing that if bears maintain control, the price could move south toward $60.
The waning institutional interest also signals that the token may experience a further pullback. SoSoValue’s data show that spot SOL ETFs remain unattractive to pension funds, hedge funds, and other investors. In fact, the daily total net inflow for July 28 dropped to -$18.07 million, the largest single-day red candle since December last year.
Time to Buy?
Others remain predominantly optimistic despite the ongoing depression. X user Crypto Zenkai opined that buying SOL at its current level below $80 is like investing in BTC in 2010. Their post drew mixed reactions, with many commentators saying the comparison was inappropriate.
Lucky is also among the bulls. The X user, who has almost 2 million followers, first wondered whether SOL’s plunge under $75 is “a juicy dip” that could be followed by a potential rally to roughly $160. Later on, the analyst called the asset a “go-to pick” for the next six months, grouping it together with ETH, LINK, TAO, and SUI.
The post Why Solana Could Be Heading for a Crash to $50 appeared first on CryptoPotato.
