Moonshot AI unveils Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion parameter model challenging US AI leaders with aggressive pricing and open-source plans ahead of a
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Iran uses drones and decoys in the Strait of Hormuz against U.S. operations. Military action against a Gulf state by July 22 at 50% YES.
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FIFA investigates Argentina after World Cup final brawl and political banner incident. Here's what it means for crypto prediction markets.
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DoubleLine bets on stable US interest rates under new Fed Chair Warsh. Fed pause in next three decisions at 58.5% YES.
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House Democrats propose a bipartisan AI policy group in Congress. Here's why the crypto market should monitor these legislative developments
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Bitcoin Magazine
Coinbase Executive Says Clarity Act Has ‘Tremendous Momentum’ in the Senate
Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack said the Clarity Act has gained “tremendous momentum” in the Senate, in a CNBC “Squawk Box” appearance that made the case for a federal crypto framework and touched on bitcoin, blockchain, and the industry’s uneasy truce with Wall Street.
VanGrack, a former SEC official, framed the Clarity Act as an overdue set of rules rather than a giveaway. “It’s not about no regulation,” he said. “This is about imposing regulation on the industry for the first time.” He described a “win-win-win” for American investors, innovators, and standards should the measure pass, and said a bipartisan group of senators has kept up work “even in the last few weeks and days.”
The House passed its version of the Clarity Act last year, and attention has shifted to the Senate, where the path to 60 votes remains the central hurdle.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill in a 15-9 vote this spring, with two Democrats crossing over, and House members have urged the Senate to act before the August recess. The measure sits in a narrow window as negotiators work out remaining terms.
President Trump added his voice last week, posting on Truth Social in support of Senator Lindsey Graham and calling on the Senate to pass the bill. Trump framed the stakes in terms of competition with China, a message he has repeated as he presses the chamber to move.
VanGrack said Democrats have won concessions that strengthen the bill’s consumer protections.
JUST IN:
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 20, 2026Coinbase Vice Chair talks CLARITY ACT on CNBC
"The Democrats have obtained meaningful concessions to make what was already a strong consumer protection bill, THAT much stronger"pic.twitter.com/y3n04dKdRi
He pointed to an illicit-finance framework, an “FTX loophole” that the text would close, insider-trading safeguards, and added disclosures.
“Across the board, the Democrats have obtained meaningful concessions to make what was already a strong consumer protection bill that much stronger,” he said.
He said the bill would not change how crypto is classified as a commodity or a security in a fundamental sense, and would preserve the registration, examination, and surveillance structure from the House version.
Asked how the industry reconciles with skeptics like JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon, VanGrack pointed to a wave of bank and institutional deals.
“Not a week goes by,” he said, where a firm fails to announce a new crypto project or investment. He predicted an “inevitable convergence,” a point at which the market stops separating traditional finance from crypto and treats each as a modern financial institution.
That convergence has played out in public, and in conflict. JPMorgan and Coinbase announced a partnership to widen crypto access, and the bank has moved to accept bitcoin as loan collateral and to let clients trade it.
Dimon, for his part, has declared war on the Clarity Act and aimed a crude insult at Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, a reminder that the détente carries friction.
The interview turned to a sharper question from CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin: whether blockchain is real but bitcoin is not. VanGrack called it “a fair question” and said the technology’s benefits stand on their own — faster settlement, more transparency, and round-the-clock transactions.
He argued that no one building a financial system today would recreate the infrastructure of the past century. He cited Citadel Securities, which he said made another large investment in the crypto economy last week, as a sign that major institutions are trending the same course.
Sorkin pressed the harder edge of the design: the technology aims to remove the counterparty a customer might call when something goes wrong. VanGrack conceded the point as fair, then countered with the costs of the current system — days to reconcile trades and the counterparty risk that delay creates.
“I’m not here to tell you it’s the wrong technology,” he said. He acknowledged open questions, including whether crypto accounts should carry interest or loyalty rewards, a debate that bankers have raised and that the law will settle as “a blunt instrument.”
He closed on the case for Clarity Act passage. “In the absence of clarity, you do not have a federal oversight and framework,” he said. “So whether you love crypto or hate crypto, you should want” the Clarity Act.
This post Coinbase Executive Says Clarity Act Has ‘Tremendous Momentum’ in the Senate first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.
Bitcoin Magazine
Russia Moves to Rein In Crypto Fraud With New Legislation
Russia is pushing ahead with regulating the cryptocurrency market, with the State Duma considering a bill on combating fraud in the industry, according to reports.
The bill will look at “combating the illegal use of cryptocurrencies within our country,” Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, reportedly said.
Lawmakers will vote on the bill in its second and third readings this week, according to Russia’s Tass news agency, and will also work to provide “an opportunity for those who use cryptocurrencies for international transactions to do so within the legal framework.”
Using crypto has been illegal in Russia as a form of payment since 2022 but lawmakers in the country have been open about using them for international settlements.
President Vladimir Putin has also previously spoken about mining digital assets, and admitted back in 2022 that the country had “certain competitive advantages” in the sector thanks to its surplus of energy and cold climate.
Last year, the president signed a law allowing cryptocurrency mining in the country, allowing legal entities to mine if they have been approved by the digital ministry. Foreign operations are currently banned from doing business in the country.
Back in 2023, the Russian legislature passed a bill legalizing the use of digital currency as a way to make international payments. The bill likely has helped the country skirt international sanctions: The U.S. and European governments sanctioned Russia when it annexed Crimea in 2014, and Western nations have stepped up penalties since it invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Top Russian banks are planning to launch crypto trading services when new regulations take hold in the country. Lawmakers have said that investors will have to pass a test to start crypto investing and will be limited on the amount they can buy.
BREAKING:
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 4, 2024Russian President Putin says "Who can ban #Bitcoin? Nobody." pic.twitter.com/6mJ664BZZ8
Russia has long had a complex history with regulating cryptocurrencies but Putin has previously praised Bitcoin.
While speaking at a forum in Moscow in December 2024, the leader of Russia was talking about the dominance of the dollar and other payment methods when he highlighted that new technologies were emerging that could help people move money.
“For example, Bitcoin, who can ban it? Nobody,” he said at the time. “And who can prohibit the use of other electronic payment instruments? Nobody, because these are new technologies.”
This post Russia Moves to Rein In Crypto Fraud With New Legislation first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.
Bitcoin Magazine
New Onramp Report Makes the Case for Spot Bitcoin Over Paper Claims as Price Sits at Half Its Peak
A new research report from bitcoin custody firm Onramp argues that the recent market slump is a reason to buy, and that owners should hold the asset itself rather than a paper claim on its price.
The report, titled “Back to Basics” and published in July 2026, opens on a market puzzle: bitcoin trades at about half its late-2025 high, while equities and gold sit at or near records of their own. For a different asset, the report says, that divergence would read as a warning. For a fixed-supply asset with adoption at an early stage, it reads as an opening.
Onramp splits its case into three parts — the fundamentals of bitcoin, the gap between owning the asset and owning a wrapper, and the data behind its claim that the moment favors accumulation.
The first section runs through ten ideas. Money, the firm writes, is a technology for storing value across time, a test that cash fails over long horizons.
Fiat currencies lose purchasing power by design, since a money supply built to expand hands the first use of new units to governments and the institutions nearest them, while it charges holders of existing balances through a weaker currency.
Against that backdrop, the report frames scarcity as the source of monetary integrity, and it casts bitcoin’s 21 million cap as a limit that any participant can verify rather than one that rests on trust.
Other points cover bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule, the halving, and the role of decentralization in making the rules credible. Authority rests with users who run full nodes, the report says, not with miners or firms, a structure that has held through past attempts to change the protocol’s core rules.
It defends proof of work as a productive use of energy, with a nod to miners that consume flared gas and surplus renewable output, and it presents bitcoin as gold’s successor — scarce and durable, yet able to move across the world in minutes and to be audited by any holder.
On volatility, Onramp treats sharp drawdowns as a feature of an asset in the middle of monetization. Declines of fifty percent or more have occurred several times, the report notes, and each prior drop gave way to a recovery beyond the former peak.
The firm favors a mechanical approach over market timing, a nod to dollar cost averaging that some view as a growing strategy and one that analysts have urged during recent dips.
The report’s sharpest argument sits in its second part, on “paper bitcoin.” A large share of what changes hands under bitcoin’s name, Onramp writes, is not bitcoin but a claim on it — a fund share, an exchange balance, or a structured product that stands as the obligation of a counterparty.
Such wrappers can track the price, the firm allows, and many run as described under capable managers. The trouble is structural: each layer adds a custodian, an administrator, or a counterparty that the asset itself does not carry, and any of them can fail for reasons apart from bitcoin. The report ties the point to strain among bitcoin-linked credit products.
Direct ownership, by contrast, preserves what the firm calls bitcoin’s bearer quality — control of the keys as ownership in full, with no account to approve and no party able to freeze or reclaim the holding.
That framing echoes the case that bitcoin removes counterparty risk from a balance sheet. From there, Onramp makes its commercial pitch. Owners can pursue self-custody, the firm writes, or turn to multi-institution custody, a model that splits keys across independent institutions so that no single party can move the coins and no single failure can lose them.
Onramp has raised $12.5 million to scale that platform and has folded cash, bitcoin, and gold into one account.
The third part turns to timing. Onramp lists four observations: a drawdown that is shallow by bitcoin’s own history, a pattern of recoveries after comparable declines, the record of steady accumulation against other assets, and the odd sight of bitcoin at a discount while most markets sit at highs.
The present cycle stands about seven months past its peak and near half below it, the report says, an earlier and shallower stage than equivalent points in past cycles.
The conclusion returns to the title. Onramp says it is getting back to the basics this summer, and it frames the message without a forecast: buy on a schedule while prices are low, and hold what you accumulate in custody you control, spread across independent institutions.
The fundamentals, the firm writes, are unaffected by the fall in price. A lower price on an asset of fixed supply and expanding adoption, it argues, is the thesis working in the buyer’s favor.
This post New Onramp Report Makes the Case for Spot Bitcoin Over Paper Claims as Price Sits at Half Its Peak first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.
Bitcoin Magazine
Strive (ASST) Adds 21 Bitcoin as Treasury Reaches 19,921 BTC and Cash Climbs to $157 Million
Strive, Inc. purchased 21 bitcoin between July 13 and July 17 at an average price of about $63,221 per coin, a buy worth around $1.3 million, according to an 8-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
The purchase lifted the Dallas-based treasury company’s bitcoin holdings from 19,900 to 19,921 BTC. Strive funded the buy while its balance sheet gained ground: cash and cash equivalents rose $3.3 million to $157.4 million as of July 17, up from $154.1 million a week prior.
The modest addition marks a step down from the pace that carried the company past 19,000 BTC across the spring. Strive (Nasdaq: ASST) trades under the Class A ticker alongside its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, listed as SATA.
Class A shares outstanding climbed to 73,869,961 from 73,426,164, a gain of 443,797 that reflects issuance under the company’s at-the-market program. Class B shares slipped by 3,335 to 9,800,012, and the SATA count held at 7,829,502.
The filing detailed Strive’s position in Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, known as STRC. Strive held 505,000 STRC shares across both reporting dates, though the fair value of that stake fell $1.1 million to $43.1 million as of July 17.
Chief Executive Matthew Cole signed the report. Cole has cast Strive as a buyer with appetite, a stance he summed up in a pledge to keep buying bitcoin “hand over fist.” The company funds its accumulation through perpetual preferred equity rather than convertible debt, a structure Cole has framed as a guard against forced selling.
Strive’s rise traces to a merger. The firm went public through a combination of Strive Asset Management and Asset Entities, then built a bitcoin treasury from the ground up. It expanded that base through the acquisition of Semler Scientific, an all-stock deal that folded a medical-technology firm and its bitcoin into Strive. Shareholders approved the Semler transaction, which closed in January and pushed combined holdings past 12,000 BTC.
The average cost of the latest buy, about $63,221 per coin, sits below the levels Strive paid across much of its earlier accumulation. The purchase adds to a treasury built at a blended cost that management has tied to a long-run thesis on the asset.
Growth has carried a cost. Strive reported a $393 million loss across its first six months as a public company, a figure tied to the accounting treatment of its bitcoin position and its share issuance. Management has pointed to a larger goal, with an eye on a $4.2 billion war chest to fund further bitcoin buys.
The company’s model issues shares into the open market and converts proceeds to bitcoin at a fast clip, a design meant to raise bitcoin exposure per share while it limits dilution. Strive ranks among the top ten public corporate holders of bitcoin, a field that Strategy leads with 843,775 BTC.
The filing carried the standard caution on forward-looking statements, with flags on risks tied to the Semler integration, digital-asset volatility, interest rates, and dilution from further share sales. The company said it may adjust the SATA dividend rate, a lever the company holds as it manages its preferred stock.
This post Strive (ASST) Adds 21 Bitcoin as Treasury Reaches 19,921 BTC and Cash Climbs to $157 Million first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.
Bitcoin Magazine
Strategy (MSTR) Sells $263.5 Million in MSTR Shares, Skips Bitcoin Purchase as USD Reserve Tops $3.2 Billion
Strategy sold about $263.5 million worth of MSTR shares last week and made no bitcoin purchases, according to an 8-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
The bitcoin treasury company reported the sale of 2,732,318 MSTR shares between July 13 and July 19. Proceeds went toward a $225 million boost to the firm’s U.S. dollar reserve, which reached $3.225 billion as of July 19. Strategy bought no bitcoin, sold no bitcoin, and repurchased no shares under its buyback programs across the period.
The company’s bitcoin stack holds at 843,775 BTC, a position worth around $54.7 billion at current prices. Strategy acquired the coins for about $63.7 billion, including fees and expenses, at an average price of $75,476 per bitcoin, according to co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor.
That total represents around 4% of bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap. At present prices, the position carries about $9 billion in paper losses.
The dollar reserve has climbed across a run of similar weeks. A prior filing put the balance near $3 billion after a $467 million share sale, and the fresh $225 million addition marks a continued tilt toward cash as management builds a buffer against the firm’s debt load.
The pause extends a pattern. Strategy has leaned on dollar accumulation over fresh bitcoin buys across recent weeks, a shift from the aggressive purchases that have reshaped corporate finance and defined much of its history.
Saylor posted another Strategy bitcoin acquisition tracker chart to X on Sunday with the caption “What’s next?” Posts of that kind have preceded acquisition announcements the next day, though the firm’s approach has varied across recent weeks.
Company leadership frames the sales as a matter of balance-sheet strength rather than retreat. President and CEO Phong Le told Bloomberg TV last week that Strategy intends to remain a long-term bitcoin buyer. Le said the firm would begin weighing risks tied to its debt in the event bitcoin dropped to the $8,000 to $10,000 range, and described the balance sheet as secure.
The stance matches Saylor’s repeated pledge that Strategy will keep buying bitcoin for years, a message he has held even through defenses of potential BTC sales.
Saylor turned his attention to Bitcoin’s protocol over the weekend. He published a 110-point essay, “110 Reasons BIP 110 Is a Bad Idea,” his most detailed case against the proposed soft fork that seeks to limit arbitrary data on the network.
The essay arrived ahead of BIP-110’s mandatory signaling window, which opens in early August. Miner support sits at 0.86% per the proposal’s public monitor.
Bitcoin mining pool Foundry has asked miners to vote on the measure, and industry voices have flagged the fork as one on track to fail given weak signaling.
Analyst reaction to Strategy’s dollar buildup has been warm. JPMorgan analysts called the larger cash reserves and improving institutional demand in bitcoin futures “encouraging signs” for the bitcoin outlook, even as spot bitcoin ETF flows stay volatile.
Strategy sits atop a crowded field. Bitcoin Treasuries data counts 197 public companies with some form of bitcoin acquisition model, a tally that pushed corporate bitcoin holdings to a record high. Tether-backed Twenty One, Metaplanet, MARA, and the Adam Back and Cantor Fitzgerald-backed Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company round out the top five, with 43,514 BTC, 43,000 BTC, 36,303 BTC, and 30,021 BTC.
The stock has struggled. MSTR fell 4% across last week and closed Friday at $94.85, a drop of 38.6% year-to-date. Bitcoin gained around 1% over the same stretch, a split that widens the gap between the firm’s treasury value and its market capitalization.
Strategy shares were up 2% in pre-market trading.
This post Strategy (MSTR) Sells $263.5 Million in MSTR Shares, Skips Bitcoin Purchase as USD Reserve Tops $3.2 Billion first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.
When a Bitcoin treasury trades for less than the Bitcoin it holds, the cheapest way to increase gross Bitcoin exposure per share may be to buy back its own stock.
UK-listed B HODL Plc tested that inversion during its first week of repurchases. It paid about £37,985 before fees to retire 823,400 shares, generating about 24% more gross sats-per-share accretion per pound than using the same cash to buy Bitcoin at the comparison price.
That 24% edge is before fees, and the numbers stop short of showing a full NAV-per-share gain.
B HODL's official dashboard on July 19 showed 166.487 BTC, a 5.25 pence share price and a £7.385 million market capitalization. At the displayed Bitcoin price of £48,237, the holdings were worth about £8.031 million, leaving a roughly £646,000 gap.
Applying the latest announced post-cancellation share count at the same stock price puts the equity value at about £7.378 million, roughly £652,000 or 8.1% below the Bitcoin value. Both sides of the comparison move continuously.
B HODL's £100,000 buyback authorization took effect July 9. Disclosures covering purchases on July 9, July 10, July 13, July 15, and July 16 total 823,400 shares at a calculated weighted average of 4.613 pence. The purchases used about 38% of the authorization before fees.
After the announced cancellations, the share count falls from 141,366,091 to 140,542,691. Holding 166.487 BTC constant, gross Bitcoin per share rises from 117.77 to 118.46 sats, an increase of 0.69 sat or 0.59%.
At the same £48,237 Bitcoin price, £37,985 would buy about 0.787 BTC. Spreading that purchase across the original share count would add about 0.557 sat per share, compared with the buyback's 0.690-sat lift. On those matched assumptions, retiring the equity was about 24% more accretive per pound.
B HODL is keeping its at-the-market issuance program open alongside the buyback. Its ATM permits share sales only when they are accretive under the company's Bitcoin-mNAV framework.
Together, the tools create a capital-allocation switch: issue equity when doing so can increase Bitcoin per share, then retire equity when the shares themselves offer cheaper Bitcoin exposure.
Still, a market capitalization below gross Bitcoin holdings is not the same as a discount to full NAV. Full NAV also depends on cash, liabilities, operating assets, costs, and the value of B HODL's Lightning Network business.
The company's latest interim balance sheet is historical, so the first week demonstrates gross sats-per-share accretion under the stated assumptions, not current NAV-per-share accretion.
For other Bitcoin treasuries trading below their per-share BTC value, the implication is conditional but clear.
Issuing more discounted stock can dilute Bitcoin exposure, while repurchasing it can outperform a direct BTC purchase.
Whether that is the right move still depends on cash runway, debt, trading liquidity and operating needs, a discipline increasingly shaping the broader treasury sector.
The post Bitcoin treasury company discovers buying own stock adds 24% more BTC per share than buying Bitcoin appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Federal prosecutors say Sioux Falls crypto investor Benjamin Paul Wiener used eight entities in an alleged fraud and money-laundering scheme, then moved investor funds through financial institutions and cryptocurrency exchanges to conceal their location, source, ownership, and control.
The government estimates the alleged losses at approximately $20 million across dozens of victims.
The Justice Department announced on July 16 that a federal grand jury had indicted Wiener the previous month on 29 counts involving wire fraud, money laundering, bank fraud and aggravated identity theft.
Wiener pleaded not guilty on July 10 before U.S. Magistrate Judge Veronica L. Duffy and was released on bond pending trial. He is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty, and his trial is scheduled for September 15.
According to the indictment, Wiener made materially false statements and fraudulent representations to induce people to invest money and digital currency with his companies. The alleged scheme affected victims throughout the region, including in South Dakota and Minnesota.
Prosecutors tied eight companies to the alleged fraud and money-laundering scheme: Benaiah Capital LLC; Benaiah Holdings, Inc.; Benaiah Digital Fixed Income LP; Benaiah Digital LP; Benaiah Management Company, Inc.; Benaiah Enterprises, LLC; Aslan Management, LLC; and Runway Four10.
The filing names all eight but does not spell out what role each played in individual transactions.
After receiving investor funds, Wiener allegedly moved the money through various financial institutions and cryptocurrency exchanges to conceal and disguise its location, source, ownership, and control. Prosecutors say he also controlled and spent the funds on personal expenses.
When victim funds became depleted, or an investor requested the return of an investment, Wiener allegedly sought new investors. The indictment says he then used new money for personal expenses and to repay previous investors.
Separately, the indictment alleges that Wiener obtained a $1 million line of credit from a Sioux Falls financial institution in April 2025 by falsifying documents, information and correspondence.
Prosecutors also allege that he used another individual's personal identifying information without authorization to secure the credit.
The Justice Department does not identify the bank or the individual whose information was allegedly used. Its release also does not connect the credit-line proceeds to the estimated $20 million investor loss, leaving the bank-fraud and identity-misuse allegations as a distinct part of the 29-count case.
The post Crypto investor charged with using 8 companies and new investor cash to keep an alleged $20M fraud alive appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Deribit’s July 31 options board shows more than 20,000 Bitcoin call contracts open at both the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes.
The two strikes represent the largest call concentrations for that expiry, with roughly 27,000 contracts at $70,000 and 21,000 at $72,000, according to the exchange's data as of press time. Bitcoin sits near $64,289, placing the lower strike about 8.9% above spot.
Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot told CoinDesk that one large block involved buying 20,000 July 31 calls at $70,000 and selling the same number at $72,000.
The exchange data concentration independently confirms substantial positioning at the strikes in the 20,000-by-20,000 bull call spread.
Based on that construction, the two legs carry roughly $2.5 billion in aggregate gross notional at prevailing Bitcoin prices. Premium paid, capital committed and net exposure are separate measures from that figure.
The options expire two days after the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Together, the strike concentration, expiry and spot gap define a tactical test for Bitcoin during the final days of July.
Under the reported structure, the $70,000 calls provide upside exposure above the lower strike at expiry, while selling the same number of $72,000 calls reduces the cost and caps further gains. The resulting bull call spread reaches its maximum payoff once Bitcoin finishes at or above the upper strike.
The structure can express a directional view, offset another options position, or hedge a separate exposure. Neither Deribit’s open-interest chart nor the reported block identifies the counterparty’s wider portfolio, so the position speaks most clearly through its capped payoff and short expiry.
CryptoSlate's July 17 review of options positioning found roughly $4.5 billion of call open interest between $70,000 and $80,000. Open interest counts outstanding contracts; direction depends on how calls are bought, sold, and combined with the rest of a portfolio. The concentration highlights the price area without turning every contract into the same bullish wager.
A separate July prediction market snapshot from July 20 assigns a 14.5% probability to Bitcoin touching $70,000 during the month and 4.1% to touching $72,500. The $67,500 threshold stands at 34.5%, while a downside touch of $62,500 stood at 67.4%.
Each threshold is a standalone, non-exclusive binary, so Bitcoin can trigger several during a volatile month. The contracts measure whether a level is touched at any point in July.
The options spread instead has a payoff tied to its July 31 expiry structure. The percentages therefore provide wider market context while answering a different question from the spread.
| Signal | Level or reading | Window | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin spot snapshot | $64,289.73 | July 20, 08:24 UTC | Reference price at one point in time |
| July 31 call positioning | More than 20,000 contracts at both $70,000 and $72,000 | July 31 expiry | Deribit open interest confirms the strike concentration; the matched spread structure remains reported |
| July threshold contracts | 14.5% for $70,000; 4.1% for $72,500 | July 20, 09:12 UTC | Separate probabilities of touching each level during July |
| Institutional scenarios | Roughly $38,000 to $150,000 | Early October, year-end or 12 months | Conditional models, support zones and research targets |
The Federal Reserve's official calendar places the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 28 and 29. The policy decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern on July 29, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. The call spread expires on July 31.
The Fed decision lands in the trade’s final stretch. From Bitcoin’s July 20 price, a move into the $70,000 to $72,000 band would still require a push through the $69,000 area, where recent buying and selling has clustered.
CryptoSlate's July 19 on-chain analysis placed an immediate recent-buyer cost-basis test near $69,000, with Bitcoin below it at the time. The same analysis identified $52,891 as a conditional lower stress boundary if weak demand persisted. Both levels change as coins transact, making them moving reference points instead of fixed destinations.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows provide a second check on demand. Farside's daily table recorded $197 million in net inflows during July 6 to 10 and $75 million during July 13 to 17, for a combined $272 million. One session produced a $424 million outflow, showing how quickly the short positive run could reverse.
ETF buyers still added $272 million over the two weeks, but the $424 million one-day outflow showed how quickly that support could disappear. A sustained move through the $69,000 to $70,000 area alongside steadier inflows would provide broader confirmation for the bullish spread. Continued failure at that zone would leave the trade as an isolated tactical position into expiry.
NYDIG, a digital-asset financial services firm, said on July 10 that matching the duration of the prior two major cycle drawdowns, paired with a shallower decline of roughly 70%, could imply a potential low around $38,000 to $39,000 in early October.
Coinbase Institutional's July 3 analysis identified $58,000 to $59,000 as the first high-strength support zone, followed by $48,000 to $50,000, roughly $42,000 and $39,000 to $40,000 if higher levels failed. Its July 6 positioning note described June month-end positioning as flushed, and options skew as tilted toward downside protection. Both pieces preceded the July 18 call-spread flow and provide an earlier risk baseline.
Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 and set a $53,000 bear case conditioned on recession and continued ETF outflows. Citi also reduced its assumed 12-month net ETF inflows to zero from $10 billion. In two other outlooks, Standard Chartered retained a $100,000 end-2026 target, while Bernstein retained an explicitly ambitious $150,000 year-end target.
These numbers span an early-October cycle scenario, conditional support zones, a 12-month bank target and year-end targets.
The July decision tree is shorter: spot must cover the 8.9% gap to $70,000, absorb selling around the recent-buyer cost basis and do so through an uneven ETF-flow backdrop.
The post Bitcoin gets $2.5B target for $72,000 by August as unknown trader bets big on Fed rally appeared first on CryptoSlate.
France's gambling regulator ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, the crypto prediction-market platform, escalating beyond a transaction geofence that it said had been circumvented in practice.
The Autorité nationale des jeux published the order on July 17, arguing that Polymarket's website promoted an unauthorized gambling offering even where the earlier restriction was meant to stop financial transactions from France. The regulator said, citing Similarweb, that the site drew 578,751 visits and 205,057 unique visitors from France in June 2026.
Those figures help explain why France moved from asking the operator to restrict transactions to directing the country's access providers to close the main website.
The escalation also exposes a crucial limit to the idea that an onchain market is beyond national reach: settlement can occur on a blockchain, while mainstream users still depend on the website and operator-controlled systems to discover markets and submit orders.
The escalation was not France's first intervention. In November 2024, the ANJ said it had approached Adventure One QSS Inc., the Panamanian company it identified as Polymarket's operator, after concluding that the platform's services could qualify as unauthorized gambling under French law. Adventure One then installed a geoblock that the regulator initially described as preventing bets from France.
The ANJ's July 2026 notice framed the new order as the next step in that same case. It said the earlier control prevented financial transactions from French territory but led to workarounds in practice. The Polymarket homepage nevertheless continued to display live odds to a large French audience.
A control that rejects new transactions may reduce direct participation while leaving the site's role in attracting users and circulating betting prices intact. The ANJ said the homepage's dynamically updated odds made it a major channel for promoting an activity it considers illegal.
French law gives the regulator a route to act against that interface. After statutory notice and response periods, Article 61 allows the ANJ to order access providers to prevent access to specified illegal online interfaces and to require search engines or directories to stop referencing them. The regulator said it blocked 1,290 URLs associated with illegal gambling in 2025 using this process.
The result is a wider distribution sanction. Instead of relying on the platform to decide which transactions to reject, France can pressure the domestic networks and discovery services that connect a mainstream audience to the platform.
The ANJ has grounded its case in gambling law rather than the use of cryptocurrency. Its 2024 notice said the intervention concerned the broader gambling character of the offering.
Its February 2026 policy statement expanded that rationale. The regulator classifies prediction markets as unauthorized gambling in France and says they combine continuous access and viral distribution with fewer protections than licensed operators. It cited addiction and integrity risks, along with absent identity and age checks, as reasons for restricting access.
The regulator's arguments show why an odds-displaying homepage is not neutral in its view. Live prices function as product marketing, while the identity, age-control and integrity systems around the market determine whether authorities see it as an acceptable service for local users.
Polymarket's own documentation makes the line between distribution and settlement unusually clear. Its current geographic restrictions page lists France as close-only on both the front end and API. Users in that category may close existing positions but cannot open new ones. The platform hosts its IP eligibility check on polymarket.com, showing that geographic access is enforced through infrastructure the operator controls.
At the same time, Polymarket describes its central limit order book as a hybrid system. Orders are matched off-chain, while matched trades settle atomically through an exchange contract on Polygon. Trading is non-custodial, according to the platform.
France's order targets access to the website and its service interface, not Polymarket's separate Polygon settlement layer. Nothing in the order indicates that France disabled the contracts. Its practical leverage instead concentrates on the layers that make the product usable and discoverable for ordinary customers.
Reaching a broad audience depends on a recognizable front end, reliable order submission, off-chain matching, geographic eligibility checks, and a compliance posture that lets users and distribution partners interact with the product.
An ISP block interferes with that commercial path. On-chain settlement does not make distribution permissionless: the front door remains where a national regulator can exert leverage.
Europe's response remains a patchwork of national actions rather than a single EU-wide ban. The ANJ identified 12 European jurisdictions that it said had restricted or blocked prediction markets: Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, Poland, the Netherlands, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ukraine and the Czech Republic.
The actions differ by jurisdiction. Spain offers one recent example. On May 26, 2026, the country's Directorate General for Gambling Regulation ordered the Polymarket and Kalshi websites to be blocked as an interim measure while it pursued proceedings regarding possible unlicensed gambling operations. Spain's regulator highlighted licensing, identity verification, access controls for minors, and self-exclusion protections.
That patchwork creates a difficult operating choice for prediction markets. Stronger geographic gating may reduce immediate regulatory exposure, but France's experience suggests a transaction-only restriction may not satisfy authorities that view the visible odds and audience reach as part of the gambling offer.
More extensive identity checks and consumer protections could answer some concerns, while licensed entry would require the platform to fit national legal categories that may differ across borders.
The near-term test centers on whether Polymarket changes its front-end controls, regulatory posture or distribution model enough to preserve mainstream access as more European jurisdictions classify prediction markets as gambling.
France has shown where its leverage lies. A regulator doesn't need to alter an on-chain market's settlement logic if it can make the website harder to reach and raise the compliance cost of serving a national audience through operator-controlled access and distribution layers.
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Hyperliquid plans to allow external operators to create prediction markets on its blockchain, widening its challenge to Polymarket while requiring prospective deployers to put nearly $32 million of its native token at risk.
The proposed HIP-4 upgrade would require each deployer to stake 500,000 HYPE, worth about $31.7 million at Monday’s token price. Hyperliquid would initially introduce the system on testnet before extending it to the main network, the platform said on July 19.
The change would give builders control over which individual questions they list and how those markets are settled.
Hyperliquid’s validators would retain authority over the broader rules, including the standardized templates deployers must use and penalties for markets that are unclear, improperly resolved, or left unsettled.
The arrangement seeks to address one of Hyperliquid’s largest disadvantages relative to Polymarket: the limited number of event contracts that its validators can create themselves. It also places a high financial threshold around a system designed to expand market creation beyond the validator group.
HIP-4 has operated on Hyperliquid’s mainnet since May 2, but its initial rollout has been limited to a small group of validator-curated contracts.
The markets are integrated into HyperCore, the platform’s native trading engine, allowing users to trade event outcomes using the same account they use for spot assets and perpetual futures. Each contract is fully collateralized and settles at either 0 or 1, depending on whether the specified event occurs.
The contracts do not use leverage, limiting a trader’s maximum loss to the amount paid for the position. That structure also allows outcome markets to sit alongside Hyperliquid’s higher-risk derivatives products without introducing liquidations or margin calls.
The planned upgrade would give HIP-4 a repeatable process for adding contracts at a scale that validator-led deployment could not easily support.
Validators would approve standardized templates governing specific market types, with the requirements stored and enforced on-chain. The templates would establish how questions must be constructed, which conditions determine settlement, and what information can be used to resolve the result.
Deployers could then use an approved template to introduce individual contracts, set their precise terms, and complete settlement after the underlying event concludes.
That process would allow similar markets, such as sports fixtures or scheduled economic releases, to be launched without requiring a new validator vote for every question.
Hyperliquid expects direct validator deployments to continue only in limited cases. The platform said that, once the new system is operating, canonical markets would ideally account for fewer than 10 questions or outcomes each year.
Each deployer would initially receive capacity for 100 outcomes, represented by up to 200 tradable outcome tokens. Questions with multiple possible outcomes would require multiple slots, while settled contracts would free up capacity for future markets.
Hyperliquid plans to add an auction mechanism for operators seeking larger allocations. Deployers would also be able to receive a fee share of up to 50% from the markets they operate, although the final economics remain subject to community feedback.
The required HYPE would remain locked for six months, and deployers would have to settle all outstanding markets before withdrawing their stake.
Validators could vote to seize part or all of it if an operator records an incorrect result, fails to resolve a contract within one week, or launches a market whose terms do not support a clear settlement.
Those requirements would make deployment an ongoing operating responsibility rather than a one-time listing decision. Builders would need to manage market definitions, settlement data, and unresolved disputes while preserving enough capacity to continue introducing new contracts.
The transition toward permissionless prediction markets is a direct replication of the strategy Hyperliquid utilized to scale its HIP-3 perpetual futures framework.
That system, which permits independent developers to list customized derivative contracts, has transformed from a niche product into the exchange's primary volume driver.
Data from DeFiLlama shows that builder-deployed contracts accounted for about 2% of Hyperliquid’s perpetual trading volume at the beginning of 2026. Their share has since climbed toward half of daily trading volume, showing how rapidly markets created by external teams have moved from the platform's edge into its core business.
Demand for those markets has pushed real-world asset activity on Hyperliquid to new highs. The platform said open interest in RWA-linked contracts reached a record $3.6 billion, while total open interest climbed to a 2026 high of $11 billion.
TradeXYZ has led that expansion with perpetual contracts linked to the Nasdaq-100 and companies including Nvidia and Tesla. The products give traders exposure to price movements without ownership of the underlying shares.
Their appeal also rests on continuous access. Unlike US-listed stocks, the contracts remain tradable at night and on weekends, allowing users to respond to earnings, policy announcements, and geopolitical developments while traditional exchanges are closed.
HIP-3’s growth suggests that external operators can identify and serve markets that Hyperliquid’s validators would struggle to build at the same pace.
It has also created a network of developers, market makers, and trading interfaces that could now apply the same playbook to HIP-4, expanding the platform’s outcome contracts beyond the limited number of validators that can deploy themselves.
While HIP-3 proved that external builders can redirect trading activity within Hyperliquid, HIP-4 will need to attract users in a market where Polymarket and Kalshi already have advantages in liquidity, distribution, and brand recognition.
Over the past year, prediction markets have expanded beyond the election-driven trading cycles that once defined the sector. As of July 2026, decentralized venues had processed more than $311 billion in cumulative volume across more than 1.65 billion transactions, drawing over 4 million users.
Sports have become an increasingly important source of that activity. Prediction-market trading during the World Cup was equivalent to about 27% of legal US sports-betting volume, up from roughly 9% at the beginning of the year, estimates from H2 Gambling Capital showed.
Institutional interest is also broadening the industry’s potential use beyond consumer speculation.
Bernstein expects annual prediction-market volume to rise from $51 billion in 2025 to about $1 trillion by 2030 as contracts tied to cryptocurrencies, economic indicators and corporate risks become more widely used for forecasting and hedging.
That growth has intensified competition among platforms pursuing different routes into the market.
Polymarket has built a wide catalog spanning politics, sports, digital assets and cultural events, supported by an interface designed around discovering and comparing questions. Kalshi has used its regulated US position to expand sports trading and deepen relationships with financial institutions.
Hyperliquid is approaching the opportunity through its existing base of active derivatives traders. Rather than building and promoting every market itself, the platform plans to provide the execution infrastructure while outside operators develop contracts, interfaces, and specialist audiences.
That model could help HIP-4 add outcomes faster than a validator-led system. However, it does not remove the challenge of persuading users to leave established venues or attracting operators capable of meeting the 500,000 HYPE staking requirement.
The breadth of available questions, the reliability of settlements, and the quality of consumer-facing discovery will determine whether HIP-4 develops into a third major prediction-market venue.
Without those elements, outcome contracts could remain an additional product for Hyperliquid’s existing trading base rather than a direct rival to Polymarket and Kalshi.
The post Hyperliquid challenges Polymarket with $32 million opening for prediction-market builders appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Russia's push to bring digital assets into international commerce is moving forward, though not as quickly as first planned. After passing its first reading back in April, the government's crypto bill has been revised and cleared for its next stage. Russia's State Duma committee has approved a revised cryptocurrency regulation bill for its second reading, removing a proposed requirement to declare crypto wallet addresses while adding provisions for crypto-funded investments and new transfer controls.
The headline feature for businesses is unchanged: crypto stays banned for domestic payments but is permitted for cross-border trade. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is flashing strength of its own, closing above key long-term support for a third straight week. Below, we cover both the regulatory update and what the BTC chart is signaling.
It has passed one of three required readings. The bill, formally titled "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights," passed its first reading with 327 of 340 deputies voting in favor. Since then it has been reworked. Russia's Financial Markets Committee approved the revised bill for its second reading, with Chairman Anatoly Aksakov saying the proposal removes wallet address reporting while strengthening legal protections for crypto owners.
Importantly, the second-reading floor vote hasn't taken place yet. The committee endorsement was announced through Aksakov's Telegram channel, and records on the State Duma website had not yet been updated since the bill cleared its first reading in April. Two Duma readings, Federation Council approval, and a presidential signature are still required before it becomes law.
Several things. The updated draft no longer requires cryptocurrency holders to declare wallet addresses; instead, users would only need to report wallet balances and transaction volumes. Aksakov said the revision is intended to reduce the risk of sensitive information being exposed in ways that could be used against Russia.
New investment and control provisions were also added. Investors would be allowed to purchase Russian securities and Digital Financial Assets using cryptocurrencies, and licensed Russian brokers and asset managers could eventually gain access to approved foreign crypto exchanges, subject to additional conditions. Retail investment limits remain unchanged, while the bill introduces a new provision allowing authorities to delay certain large outbound crypto transfers for up to two days. The retail cap holds at 300,000 rubles annually.
Because it hands Russian companies a settlement route outside sanctioned banking channels. The bill maintains crypto's ban for domestic payments while carving out its use in foreign trade and, in the revised text, covering investor eligibility, consumer protections, cross-border crypto transactions, and the use of digital assets in Russia's financial markets. The scale is significant: Russian exporters and importers moving goods across an estimated $240 billion in trade volume and facing payment friction would gain a legal pathway to settle contracts in cryptocurrency.
Only major assets are expected to qualify. Only cryptocurrencies with market caps above 5 trillion rubles (around $66.6 billion) and a five-year trading history would be eligible, with Bitcoin and Ethereum the expected first approvals.
Later than originally targeted. Finance ministry official Alexey Yakovlev told Interfax the bill is largely ready but unlikely to be adopted by the initial July 1, 2026 target, having been sent back for committee review before its second reading. No firm replacement date has been confirmed, so the timeline now hinges on how quickly the remaining readings and approvals proceed.
Bitcoin just delivered its highest weekly close in five weeks. More notably, $BTC closed above its 200-week moving average support for the third consecutive week — resilience that stands out given the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 4% over the same period. That divergence from tech equities at a major support zone is exactly what bulls want to see.
The technical picture is constructive. The MACD has turned bullish, the RSI bullish divergence remains valid, and the Stochastic RSI is showing positive momentum. The bullish engulfing candle from three weeks ago is also still holding — a pattern that has appeared three times this cycle, each time followed by a strong rally.
The map is clean on both sides. Resistance sits at $67,000, then $83,000. Support sits at $58,000, then $49,000.
Two scenarios stand out. If BTC holds above $58K, it could break toward $67K and then $83K. If instead BTC closes below $58K on the weekly chart, the next meaningful support is around $49K. With price currently trading near $64K, the $58K weekly close is the line in the sand to watch.
Memecoins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe, or Bonk can experience significant price fluctuations in a short period. Those who invest early and sell after a strong increase may achieve a high profit. However, the same tax rules that apply to more well-known cryptocurrencies generally apply to memecoins as well.
It does not matter whether a coin has a high market value, is only trending for a short time, or was originally created as an internet joke. What matters most are the acquisition date, the sale date, and the total profit realized.
The Federal Ministry of Finance treats cryptocurrencies in private assets as so-called other economic goods. This includes not only Bitcoin and Ether but also smaller altcoins and memecoins.
If an individual sells a memecoin for a profit within one year of purchase, it may be considered a private sale transaction under § 23 of the Income Tax Act. The tax name or technical design of the coin is usually less important than whether it was acquired and later sold.
Therefore, the basic tax rules also apply to coins that have a low market capitalization or are traded on decentralized trading platforms.
For privately held cryptocurrencies, there is generally a holding period of one year. If more than twelve months pass between acquisition and sale, any profit made is usually tax-free under current law. However, if the sale occurs within one year, it must be determined whether the profit is taxable.
Example:
An investor buys memecoins for 2,000 euros on January 10. On June 1 of the same year, he sells the coins for 7,000 euros. The profit, before considering any possible fees, is 5,000 euros. Since less than a year has passed between the purchase and sale, the transaction generally falls under the category of private sale transactions. If the sale were to occur after the one-year holding period, the profit would generally be tax-free in private assets.
Many investors assume that only the payout to their bank account is tax-relevant. However, this is a common misconception. A disposal can not only refer to the sale of a memecoin for euros. Exchanging it for another cryptocurrency can also be treated as a sale for tax purposes.
Tax-relevant transactions can include:
For example, if someone exchanges Dogecoin for a profit in USDT, they realize the profit at the time of the exchange. The fact that the stablecoins remain on the crypto exchange afterward does not prevent potential tax liability. The Federal Ministry of Finance clarifies that exchanging one cryptocurrency for another is generally considered a disposal of the cryptocurrency given and an acquisition of the cryptocurrency received.
For profits from private disposals, there is an annual exemption limit of 1,000 euros. This is not a tax allowance. If the total profit from all private disposals in the calendar year remains below 1,000 euros, it remains tax-free. If the limit is reached or exceeded, the entire taxable profit can be assessed.
Not only individual memecoin sales are considered. The total profit from all private disposals in the relevant calendar year is generally what matters. In addition to various cryptocurrencies, other private disposals may also be included in the calculation under certain conditions. Therefore, investors should not consider each coin in isolation. The statutory exemption limit of 1,000 euros is derived from § 23 of the Income Tax Act.
An investor achieves the following results within a year:
The total profit amounts to 950 euros. If there are no other relevant private disposals, the total profit remains below the exemption limit of 1,000 euros. However, if a total profit of 1,050 euros is generated, not only the amount above 1,000 euros is taxable. In principle, the entire profit of 1,050 euros can be tax-relevant.
The taxable profit is simply derived from the difference between the sale proceeds and the acquisition costs. Fees directly related to the transaction can also play a role in the calculation.
Simplified formula:
If an investor buys memecoins for 1,500 euros and later sells them for 4,000 euros, there is initially a profit of 2,500 euros. Fees for buying and selling can accordingly change the taxable result. The calculation becomes more complicated when coins are purchased in multiple partial transactions at different prices and later sold only partially.
Memecoins are often bought in several tranches. For example, investors may initially invest a small amount, buy more after a price drop, and later sell only a portion of their holdings.
It must then be clear which coins are considered sold and which acquisition costs and holding periods are assigned to those coins. The BMF letter on cryptocurrencies contains guidelines for determining and documenting such transactions. Depending on the case, individual assessments or simplified allocation methods may be relevant. It is especially important that the chosen and used calculation is documented in a traceable and consistent manner.
Those who hold the same memecoins on multiple exchanges and wallets should not mix their holdings without verification. Transfers between one's own wallets are generally not considered sales but must be documented to avoid being mistakenly classified as taxable transactions.
Not every memecoin increases in value. Many projects lose a significant portion of their market capitalization shortly after launch or are hardly traded anymore. If a memecoin is sold or exchanged at a loss within the one-year holding period, a tax-deductible loss from a private sale may arise.
Such losses can generally be offset against profits from other private sales. However, free offsetting against wages, business income, or capital gains is generally not possible. If losses remain, a loss carryback or loss carryforward may be applicable under legal conditions within this type of income. However, a mere price loss is not sufficient. As long as the coins are merely sitting in the wallet and have not been sold, the loss is generally not realized for tax purposes.
Memecoins that have become practically worthless or can no longer be traded are particularly challenging. This applies, for example, after a rug pull, project abandonment, or removal of the token from trading platforms.
An economic total loss does not automatically lead to the tax office accepting a tax-deductible loss. It is often crucial whether there is actually a verifiable sale or another tax-relevant realization event. Sales at a very low price, token swaps, abandoned projects, and technically inaccessible coins should therefore be examined individually. Especially for larger amounts, tax advice may be advisable.
Memecoins do not always enter the wallet through a traditional purchase. Some investors receive coins through airdrops, promotions, community rewards, or free token distributions. In such cases, the tax treatment cannot be assessed solely based on the rules for a normal purchase. It must be examined, among other things, whether taxable income arose at the time of receipt and what value can later be set as acquisition costs.
The start of the holding period may also depend on the specific circumstances. Therefore, investors should document when and for what reason they received the coins and what market value they had at that time.
The rules described primarily apply to occasional sales from private assets. In cases of extensive, systematic, and permanently profit-oriented activities, a commercial activity may exist. A high number of trades alone does not automatically lead to a business operation. The overall picture of the activity is always decisive.
A commercial classification can have significant consequences. These include, among other things, different profit determination rules, potential trade tax, and the loss of tax-free sales after the one-year holding period. Those who operate automated trading systems, manage third-party capital, consistently act like a professional trader, or additionally offer extensive services related to trading should have their classification examined early.
With memecoins, complete documentation is particularly important. Small coins are often traded on multiple exchanges, through decentralized platforms, or directly via wallets. Some projects or trading venues disappear shortly after launch.
Therefore, investors should secure the following as soon as possible:
Screenshots alone are often not sufficient but can be helpful as a supplement. Complete transaction histories, blockchain data, and traceable calculations are better. The BMF explicitly emphasizes the obligations to cooperate and record income from cryptocurrencies in its letter from 2025.
The term memecoin can be misleading, as it can lead to significant taxable amounts. Early buyers can achieve profits that are significantly above the exemption limit during strong price increases. The tax office does not fundamentally distinguish whether a project is serious, technically innovative, or merely temporarily popular. Profits from speculative coins can also be taxable. Therefore, investors should check before selling when the coins were acquired and what tax consequences a sale or exchange could trigger.
For memecoins, the same tax rules generally apply in private assets as for other cryptocurrencies. If the sale or exchange occurs within one year after purchase, the profit may be taxable. After the one-year holding period, the profit is generally tax-free under current law.
Moreover, exchanging for Bitcoin, Ether, or stablecoins can already be considered a sale. Additionally, investors must observe the annual exemption limit of 1,000 euros for all private sales.
Especially for small and short-term traded coins, comprehensive documentation is crucial. Exchanges can close, tokens can disappear, and historical price data can sometimes be difficult to obtain. Those who secure purchases, sales, fees, and wallet transfers early can make their later tax return significantly easier and more traceable.
Bitcoin just went through one of its roughest stretches in years. After starting 2026 above $93,000, BTC bled through the first half of the year and dropped roughly 20% in June alone, sliding to around $58,000 on July 1 — its lowest level in more than 21 months. It even closed a full week below its 200-week moving average for the first time in about four years, a line that has historically only broken during deep bear phases.
So why is anyone talking about altcoins right now? Because the market has since steadied, with $BTC clawing back toward the $60,000–$65,000 zone, and because July has historically been one of Bitcoin's stronger months — green in 9 of the last 13 years with an average return north of 7%. If that seasonal pattern plays out and Bitcoin turns its recent low into support, capital tends to rotate down the risk curve into altcoins. That's where the bigger percentage gains usually show up.
This article focuses on five altcoins that fit three strict filters: a market cap under $2 billion (room to grow), a price under $10 (no psychological "too expensive" barrier), and genuine, demonstrable utility (not just hype). Every price and market cap below reflects early-July 2026 levels and will move — treat them as a snapshot, not a promise.
A necessary reality check first: this is a conditional setup, not a confirmed bull run. Bitcoin is still trading below major moving averages, spot ETFs saw record outflows in June, and several banks have cut their targets. Small-cap altcoins fall harder than Bitcoin when the market turns risk-off. Everything below assumes the recovery continues — if BTC loses its recent lows instead, these coins would likely drop faster than the market. Position accordingly.
When Bitcoin is falling or uncertain, money hides in BTC or leaves crypto entirely. But when Bitcoin stabilizes and confidence returns, traders start hunting for higher returns, and that capital flows into altcoins. Because these projects have far smaller market caps than Bitcoin, a relatively small amount of new money can move their prices sharply — the same dynamic that makes them fall harder on the way down. This rotation is what people mean by "altseason," and it typically favors coins with real usage and a clear story, not just the biggest names.
Render connects people who need heavy graphics and AI computing power with those who have spare GPUs to rent out. As demand for AI training and rendering explodes, decentralized compute networks are one of the clearest "picks and shovels" plays in crypto. Render recently expanded its network capacity significantly through a governance proposal that added tens of thousands of GPUs via a new subnet, directly boosting what the network can handle. With AI infrastructure being one of the hottest narratives heading into the second half of 2026, Render sits right in the middle of it — and at under $1B, it has room to run if that theme keeps attracting capital.
Ondo is a leader in tokenizing real-world assets — think U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and ETFs turned into on-chain tokens. It has built serious institutional credibility, with partnerships and pilots involving names like BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Mastercard, and its platform now spans hundreds of tokenized equities. RWA is widely seen as one of the most durable long-term narratives in crypto because it connects blockchain to trillions of dollars in traditional finance. The one thing to watch: Ondo has significant token unlocks scheduled through 2028, which can add selling pressure even when fundamentals are strong.
Injective is a blockchain built specifically for financial applications — decentralized exchanges, derivatives, prediction markets, and lending. It offers fast, low-cost transactions and a fully on-chain order book, and it's interoperable with major chains like $Ethereum and $Solana. With one of the smaller market caps on this list (under $500M) but a mature, working ecosystem and over a billion transactions processed, Injective is the kind of established-but-undervalued project that can move fast if DeFi activity picks back up in a recovery.
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Kaspa is a proof-of-work Layer 1 built on its GHOSTDAG protocol, designed for extremely fast block times and high throughput. Its big recent catalyst is the Toccata hard fork (activated June 30, 2026), which added native smart contracts and token support — transforming Kaspa from a pure payments chain into a programmable one. That upgrade opens the door to a whole new wave of apps and developer activity. Kaspa also had a fair launch with no pre-mine and its emissions are winding down toward zero, which reduces future dilution — a rare structural positive among small-caps.
Not every allocation in a recovery needs to be a small-cap moonshot. Pairing the higher-risk picks above with exposure to established assets — and using a regulated platform — is how experienced traders manage the downside if the recovery stalls. If you want to trade crypto-related instruments alongside stocks and ETFs on a regulated, MiCA-era-compliant broker, XTB is one option worth reviewing.
👉 Trade on a regulated platform: Open an account with XTB.
There's no single "best" — it depends on which narrative you believe in most. If you're betting on AI, Render is the cleanest exposure. If you want the most durable long-term story, Ondo and RWA lead. If you want a small, established DeFi network with room to grow, Injective stands out. And if you're drawn to a freshly upgraded, fair-launched Layer 1, Kaspa just became a lot more interesting. The smart move for most people is diversification across narratives rather than betting everything on one coin.
Crypto is closing the week in cautious green after a whipsaw few days. A softer-than-expected inflation print early in the week pushed Bitcoin briefly above $65,000 and Ethereum over $1,900, before a sixth straight day of U.S. airstrikes against Iran pulled risk assets back down. As of now, the majors are holding modest weekly gains, but the market remains firmly below where it started 2026.
Here's what moved this week and what to watch next.
As of this weekend, here's the snapshot for the majors:
Bitcoin dominance sits around 57%, and total 24-hour market volume is hovering near $36 billion. Sentiment has recovered from June's "Extreme Fear" lows but remains fragile.
Three forces defined the week. First, a softer inflation report early in the week reignited hopes of a less hawkish Fed, sparking the mid-week surge that briefly took Bitcoin over $65K. Second, geopolitics reasserted itself — a sixth day of U.S. airstrikes against Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and oil prices climbing, dampened appetite for risk-based assets like crypto. Third, ETF flows kept whipsawing: after June's record $4.5 billion in net outflows — the worst month on record for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — early July saw flows partially reverse, and the market is watching closely for the first sustained "consecutive net inflow week" that many analysts see as the signal to re-engage.
Ethereum continued to quietly outperform. Analysts point to ETH's historical tendency to lead broader crypto recoveries, and its technical setup — having reclaimed key moving averages while pressing toward 100-day EMA resistance near $1,944 — looks stronger than Bitcoin's right now.
The short version: Bitcoin's 2026 pain hasn't come from crypto fundamentals — it's come from flows and macro. ETF outflows removed a large structural source of demand, a hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh kept the dollar firm, and capital rotated into AI stocks for much of the year. Warsh's June meeting delivered an unambiguously hawkish message, with the dot plot now pointing toward a possible hike in 2026 rather than a cut. Until ETF flows turn durably positive, Bitcoin's biggest structural bid remains a swing factor rather than a tailwind.
The calendar is dominated by one event: the Federal Reserve's July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Markets are now pricing a meaningful probability of a rate hike, a stark shift from the rate-cut expectations that carried into the year. This meeting is widely viewed as the decider for whether the recent bottom holds or another leg lower opens up.
Key things to watch:
Expect range-bound, headline-driven trading in
Federal prosecutors have charged a 21-year-old Florida resident and student, Zyaire Wilkins, over an alleged scheme that hid crypto-stealing malware inside video games uploaded to Steam. Once victims downloaded and installed the games, the malware quietly harvested passwords and personal data and drained their crypto wallets. On Tuesday, the FBI arrested Wilkins, and on Wednesday prosecutors accused him and a number of unnamed co-conspirators of hacking crimes.
According to a federal criminal complaint, Wilkins and his alleged partners published multiple malware-laced games over roughly two years. Over the past two years, Wilkins and his partners allegedly published several malware-laden video games on Steam, including BlockBlasters, Dashverse, Lampy, Lunara, and PirateFi. Some reporting on the broader FBI investigation lists additional titles including Chemia, DashFPS and Tokenova.
The games weren't broken shells — they were built to pass as the real thing. All the games were designed to look legitimate, to the point that players could install them and play them, but they all contained malware. That's what made the operation effective: victims had no obvious reason to suspect the title they were playing was siphoning their credentials in the background.
The numbers are significant for a scheme run through consumer gaming titles. Using that malware, says the FBI, Wilkins and his accomplices infected around 8,000 victims, and then hacked around 80 cryptocurrency wallets to steal at least $220,000 worth of crypto. The alleged campaign ran between May 2024 and February 2026.
The infected games were pushed hard across social channels. The FBI said the group promoted the games on Discord, Telegram, X, and LinkedIn while using bots to identify users with large cryptocurrency holdings and send targeted messages encouraging them to install the games. In other words, the operation didn't just wait for random downloads — it appears to have deliberately hunted high-value crypto holders.
This is where the case gets almost comical. Investigators followed the money out of the scheme's Bitcoin wallet and into gift cards. Investigators put a name to the scheme by following stolen Bitcoin to more than 150 gift cards, most of them spent on Uber Eats.
From there, the trail led straight to Wilkins' door. A subpoena to Uber matched the cards to an account with deliveries at Wilkins' family home and his addresses at the University of West Florida. When agents searched the North Lauderdale residence, they seized several devices and three cryptocurrency wallet seed phrases, one belonging to a Monero wallet. The complaint also notes his crypto history: Wilkins' transaction history showed $382,000 in cryptocurrency sent or received, per the complaint.
Wilkins was arrested Tuesday and charged with conspiracy to obtain information by computer for private financial gain — a count that carries up to a decade in prison. The case is being prosecuted in Seattle, near the Washington headquarters of Steam owner Valve. It's the first arrest tied to the FBI's broader Steam malware investigation, which the bureau went public with back in March. Wilkins' attorney has not commented on the allegations.
For the first time in Cardano's history, no company flipped the switch on a major protocol update.
Two consecutive weeks of inflows ended the worst sustained outflow streak in Bitcoin ETF history. Here's why patience may be required from investors.
"The reduced pace of buys reflects that Bitmine repurchased 5.5 million common shares," Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee said in a statement.
For the second consecutive week, Saylor's company sold MSTR stock instead of BTC to pad its reserves to $3.2 billion.
An attacker used a flash loan to distort the bridge's Solana stablecoin pools before moving the proceeds to Ethereum, security firms said.
Ripple Prime is rapidly positioning itself as the infrastructure backbone for "Wall Street 2.0," reporting a tripling of year-over-year revenues as institutional finance shifts toward 24/7 blockchain-powered operations.
Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko shifts focus from the AI rollout, revealing a multi-year decentralization roadmap toward the Nakamoto milestone.
XRP daily trading volume jumps 61% to $1.96 billion as a massive liquidity inflow sparks talk of a potential 28% run toward the $1.42 average.
Ethereum's founder Vitalik Buterin continued sharing uncommon insights about the evolution of AI and its capabilities, this time believing AI is surpassing humans in more ways than we think.
Bitmine corners 4.8% of the global Ethereum supply but slashes weekly ETH purchases to execute a massive $ billion stock buyback strategy.
BETA shares surge 11.85% following MV250 military aircraft debut.
Aircraft features 1,300-nautical-mile reposition range with 2,000-pound payload capacity.
Hybrid-electric design reduces maintenance requirements and operational expenses.
Strategic partnerships with GE Aerospace and Sikorsky enhance propulsion and autonomy.
Shared manufacturing infrastructure enables rapid production scaling and deployment.
Shares of BETA Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: BETA) surged 11.85% to reach $19.87 following the company’s reveal of its latest military aviation platform, the MV250. The stock maintained momentum near session highs as investors responded positively to the defense aircraft announcement. The new hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing platform marks a significant expansion of BETA’s defense sector presence.
BETA Technologies, Inc., BETA
BETA revealed the MV250 at the Farnborough International Airshow, presenting it as an autonomous hybrid-electric VTOL solution engineered specifically for military applications. The aircraft addresses critical military logistics requirements in challenging operational theaters, including contested zones and remote deployment areas. Key objectives include extended operational range, enhanced cargo capacity, and significantly reduced lifecycle costs.
According to published performance data, the MV250 achieves a reposition range of 1,300 nautical miles. The platform supports a 2,000-pound payload over a tactical operating radius of 250 nautical miles. Its hybrid-electric architecture delivers enhanced speed capabilities while substantially reducing maintenance demands compared to conventional rotorcraft.
The MV250 leverages proven technologies deployed in BETA’s ALIA aircraft family. Core systems including flight control mechanisms, propulsion components, software architecture, battery technology, and manufacturing methodologies were adapted from existing platforms. This technology-sharing strategy minimizes development expenses while accelerating manufacturing timelines and operational readiness.
BETA collaborated with GE Aerospace to engineer the aircraft’s hybrid-electric turbogenerator through their Joint Technology Development Agreement. This propulsion solution significantly extends mission duration while providing ground power generation capabilities for supporting equipment. The system incorporates proven CT7 and T700 turbine technologies integrated with sophisticated electrical architectures.
According to the company, the mechatronic propulsion design delivers enhanced efficiency, reduced weight profiles, superior durability, and lower total system costs. These technical advantages directly support military operations requiring sustained endurance and reliable logistics capabilities. The ongoing partnership leverages years of collaborative technical development between both organizations.
The MV250 features an open architecture flight control system designed for compatibility with diverse autonomous mission systems. BETA has validated its electric aircraft platforms using both Sikorsky’s MATRIX autonomy technology and proprietary autonomous systems. This flexibility enables military customers to configure the aircraft for varied mission profiles while maintaining a standardized core technology platform.
BETA produces essential MV250 components through its current production infrastructure, utilizing shared tooling and established manufacturing workflows. This integrated production methodology compresses development cycles while reducing unit costs. The company anticipates this approach will enhance production scalability across its expanding aircraft portfolio.
The aircraft launch follows BETA’s growing military aviation engagement demonstrated through recent international training exercises. Earlier this year, the company successfully deployed its all-electric ALIA CTOL variant during NATO Exercise Aurora 26 conducted in Sweden. That deployment validated military logistics applications in joint operations environments and generated valuable operational performance data for ongoing development programs.
The MV250 introduction reflects BETA’s comprehensive strategy of deploying common technology foundations across diverse aircraft platforms. The company maintains focused investment in electric propulsion systems, energy storage solutions, advanced flight controls, software platforms, autonomous capabilities, and scalable manufacturing systems. Through this approach, BETA seeks to simultaneously advance commercial and defense aviation capabilities while preserving technological commonality across its product range.
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BETA shares surge 11.85% following MV250 military aircraft announcement.
New platform features 1,300-nautical-mile reposition range with 2,000-pound payload capacity.
Hybrid-electric system reduces operational expenses and simplifies maintenance.
Strategic partnerships with GE Aerospace and Sikorsky enhance propulsion and autonomy.
Shared production infrastructure may accelerate manufacturing timelines.
Shares of BETA Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: BETA) advanced 11.85% to reach $19.87 following the company’s debut of the MV250, a new military aircraft designed for defense operations. The stock maintained momentum near session highs as investors responded to the strategic expansion into military aviation. The announcement marks a significant addition to BETA’s growing defense portfolio through its innovative hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing technology.
BETA Technologies, Inc., BETA
At the Farnborough International Airshow, BETA revealed the MV250 as an autonomous hybrid-electric VTOL aircraft engineered specifically for defense applications. The platform addresses critical military requirements including logistics support in challenging and remote operational zones. Key design priorities include extended operational reach, enhanced cargo capacity, and significantly reduced lifecycle expenses.
According to published performance metrics, the MV250 delivers a reposition range reaching 1,300 nautical miles. The aircraft supports tactical missions spanning 250 nautical miles while transporting up to 2,000 pounds of cargo. Its hybrid-electric architecture enables higher operational speeds while minimizing maintenance demands through simplified mechanical systems.
The MV250 leverages proven technologies from BETA’s ALIA aircraft program. Critical systems including flight management, propulsion components, software architecture, energy storage, and production techniques carry over directly. This technology transfer strategy minimizes development expenses while enabling accelerated production schedules and operational readiness.
BETA collaborated with GE Aerospace through their Joint Technology Development Agreement to engineer the aircraft’s hybrid-electric turbogenerator. This propulsion solution maximizes operational endurance while providing electrical power for ground-based support equipment. The system incorporates proven CT7 and T700 turbine platforms integrated with sophisticated electrical components.
According to the company, the mechatronic architecture delivers improved efficiency metrics, reduced structural weight, enhanced reliability, and lower total system expenses. These characteristics directly support extended military operations requiring sustained logistics capabilities. The ongoing collaboration builds upon established technical cooperation between the partner organizations.
The MV250 incorporates an open-architecture flight control system designed for compatibility with various autonomous mission packages. BETA validated its electric aircraft technology using both Sikorsky’s MATRIX autonomy solution and proprietary autonomous systems. This flexibility allows military customers to configure the platform for diverse mission profiles while maintaining a unified technology baseline.
BETA produces key MV250 structural components using established production facilities with standardized tooling and assembly procedures. This manufacturing approach compresses development cycles while controlling total program costs. The company anticipates this methodology will enhance production scalability across future aircraft initiatives.
The MV250 represents BETA’s latest milestone in ongoing military collaboration, following recent international operational demonstrations. Earlier this year, the company participated in NATO Exercise Aurora 26 in Sweden with its all-electric ALIA CTOL variant. The deployment provided real-world military logistics experience alongside traditional aircraft while generating valuable performance data for continued development.
The new platform reinforces BETA’s overarching approach of deploying unified technologies across diverse aircraft configurations. The company maintains focused investment in electric propulsion systems, energy storage solutions, flight management technology, software development, autonomous capabilities, and advanced manufacturing. Through this strategy, BETA seeks to advance both commercial and military aviation applications while preserving a common technological foundation.
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Shares of EGAN advanced to $6.59, gaining 0.30% during intraday trading, following eGain Corporation’s significant industry achievement. The software company secured Leader status in Gartner’s inaugural Magic Quadrant for Knowledge Management Systems for Customer Service. This price movement represents a solid recovery from the stock’s earlier session low around $6.10.
eGain Corporation, EGAN
Gartner unveiled its first-ever Magic Quadrant for Knowledge Management Systems for Customer Service on July 16, 2026. The comprehensive report places EGAN alongside elite vendors defining this nascent software sector. Research analysts Pri Rathnayake, Jennifer MacIntosh, Patrick Quinlan, and Drew Kraus compiled the assessment.
eGain interprets this achievement as validation that knowledge management warrants dedicated infrastructure recognition. Fortune 2000 companies and government agencies utilize EGAN to streamline customer service operations. Highly regulated sectors especially value the platform’s robust governance features.
CEO and Chairman Ashu Roy expressed gratitude for the Gartger acknowledgment. He emphasized that reliable knowledge has become critical for effective automated customer service. The distinction affirms the company’s long-term commitment to knowledge infrastructure innovation.
The eGain Knowledge Hub delivers enterprise-wide content governance, customization, and comprehensive audit trails. It leverages eGain’s exclusive KnowledgeOps methodology to gather, refine, and authenticate information. This architecture ensures EGAN-driven responses remain rooted in validated and precise content.
Ongoing assessment, source attribution, and integrated safeguards enable EGAN to uphold compliance in heavily regulated sectors. These capabilities guarantee automated replies stay accurate, uniform, and completely traceable. Organizations can confidently deploy the system to minimize mistakes in customer communications.
eGain Composer, a comprehensive developer toolkit, offers APIs, SDKs, and MCP servers for advanced integration. Developers leverage these resources to construct agentic workflows built upon the EGAN knowledge infrastructure. This adaptability empowers organizations to tailor automation while preserving governance protocols.
Healthfirst’s Chief Information Officer G.T. Sweeney commended eGain for streamlining member assistance across intricate healthcare offerings. He noted that Healthfirst personnel work from identical validated and up-to-date knowledge repositories. This uniformity ensures members obtain precise and prompt benefits information.
John Copeland, VP of Marketing at eGain, stated that superior knowledge produces more reliable customer service outcomes. He stressed that governed knowledge, beyond sophisticated algorithms alone, establishes enduring enterprise confidence. This principle guides EGAN’s comprehensive product development roadmap.
The eGain solution is currently accessible for organizations pursuing advanced knowledge management capabilities. Gartner simultaneously released a supplementary report titled Critical Capabilities for Knowledge Management Systems for Customer Service. Combined, these publications reinforce EGAN’s position as an acknowledged leader within this domain.
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Shares of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) declined 0.30% to $111.60 following media reports connecting the networking leader to a possible acquisition of Zafran Security, an Israeli cybersecurity firm. Sources indicate the deal could value Zafran somewhere between $150 million and $200 million. However, Zafran has disputed these claims, asserting that Cisco completed a strategic investment rather than pursuing acquisition talks.
Cisco Systems, Inc., CSCO
Cisco has been identified as a prospective acquirer of Zafran Security, according to industry report. Sources familiar with the matter suggest the cybersecurity company’s valuation falls within the $150 million to $200 million range. Zafran, however, has refuted suggestions that it’s in active acquisition negotiations.
The startup clarified that Cisco has instead completed a strategic investment, signaling confidence in Zafran’s technological capabilities and market trajectory. Company representatives emphasized plans to pursue an additional substantial funding round. Zafran maintains that its commercial expansion continues to accelerate.
The reported valuation represents a discount compared to Zafran’s most recent private funding round in late 2025. That financing event brought in $60 million and pushed the company’s valuation above the $200 million threshold. Since its 2022 inception, Zafran has accumulated over $130 million in total funding.
The acquisition speculation emerged soon after Snir Havdala, co-founder and Chief Product Officer, departed from Zafran. Havdala has transitioned to Nvidia, where he assumes the position of Director of Engineering focused on developing AI agent solutions for infrastructure platforms. Zafran characterized the leadership change as a long-planned transition.
The company promoted Vice President of Product Itay Nachum to oversee the product division. Zafran emphasized that the transition was orchestrated collaboratively with executive leadership. The firm also pointed to ongoing customer acquisition and expanding penetration within heavily regulated industry sectors.
According to industry insiders, Zafran generated approximately $20 million in annual recurring revenue over the previous year. Nevertheless, reports indicate that revenue momentum weakened following an initial period of rapid expansion. The exposure management market features numerous established competitors, including Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Microsoft, Tenable, Qualys, and Cisco itself.
Zafran specializes in threat exposure management technology that spans cloud infrastructures, on-premises systems, and application layers. The platform connects with major services including Amazon Web Services, Snyk, and Wiz. Recently, Zafran has positioned its solution as a successor to Cisco’s discontinued Kenna vulnerability management platform.
Cisco purchased Kenna Security in 2021 before subsequently sunsetting the product as a standalone offering. Core Kenna functionality was absorbed into Cisco’s comprehensive cybersecurity suite via Splunk integration. Therefore, incorporating Zafran could augment Cisco’s threat exposure management portfolio.
The speculation emerged while Cisco stock registered modest losses at $111.60. While the company hasn’t officially acknowledged any acquisition arrangement, media outlets continue associating Cisco with Zafran. The developments underscore ongoing consolidation within the cybersecurity landscape as major technology vendors pursue enhanced security competencies.
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Artificial intelligence stocks mounted a comeback during Monday’s session following the previous week’s sharp retreat. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and related chip manufacturers experienced upward momentum as capital flowed back into the space.
Numerous market participants interpreted the recent weakness as an attractive entry point instead of signaling a fundamental shift in sentiment. Conviction around the long-term trajectory of AI infrastructure buildout remains largely intact.
Market observers caution that semiconductor names will continue responding sharply to quarterly results and executive commentary throughout the coming weeks.
AMD emerged as a standout performer following news of an enhanced AI partnership with Microsoft. The agreement centers on artificial intelligence hardware solutions and cloud platform development, solidifying AMD’s presence in this rapidly expanding market segment.
This collaboration underscores a broader market dynamic. Leading technology firms continue deploying massive capital toward data center expansion, chip procurement, and cloud services, with no indication of slowing AI-related expenditures.
From an investment perspective, this development highlights AMD’s efforts to establish itself as a credible alternative to Nvidia in the enterprise AI computing arena.
Crude oil momentarily surpassed the $90 threshold before pulling back following diplomatic developments that alleviated concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply constraints. Commodity markets remain turbulent as participants monitor geopolitical situations.
Elevated energy prices create ripple effects throughout logistics networks and industrial production. They also pressure household budgets and potentially constrain central bank flexibility regarding monetary policy adjustments.
While recent inflation readings have shown improvement, any prolonged spike in energy expenses could challenge expectations for interest rate reductions in coming months.
Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted advances, declining issues outnumbered gainers across the broader market. This lack of participation indicates the upward movement was concentrated within a handful of heavyweight technology names rather than reflecting widespread strength.
Market technicians monitor breadth indicators closely since sustainable advances typically feature broader sector involvement. The present configuration reveals how heavily major indexes depend on mega-cap technology performance.
Quarterly earnings reports now dominate investor focus. Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, and IBM represent key names scheduled to announce results in the days ahead.
Market participants will scrutinize not just the numbers themselves but management perspectives on AI investment trends, consumer behavior patterns, and revenue projections. With elevated valuations across numerous technology names, forward-looking statements may carry greater weight than historical performance.
This week’s earnings disclosures could establish market direction well into the summer months.
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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a consolidation phase, a little above the $60,000 level. The market is approaching 165 days of testing that crucial price zone despite a rally above $80,000 in May that ultimately failed to sustain momentum, according to analyst Darkfost.
The analyst pointed to a lack of fresh liquidity entering the crypto market as one of the main reasons behind Bitcoin’s inability to establish a stronger uptrend.
Fresh demand has struggled to materialize for both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, the analysis said. Exchange stablecoin reserves have reflected that trend since the beginning of the year, which essentially shows a near-continuous decline as outflows consistently outpaced inflows.
Over the past 30 days, Binance recorded approximately $1.55 billion in stablecoin outflows – a significant reduction in reserves over a relatively short period. Bybit also saw a further $786 million leave its stablecoin reserves during the same timeframe. In total, the two exchanges recorded nearly $2.3 billion in stablecoin outflows over the past month.
Darkfost explained that the falling reserves indicate that incoming liquidity and investor demand are continuing to contract. The analyst added that market participants appear to be withdrawing stablecoins from exchanges rather than deploying them into crypto assets, while some may be exiting the market entirely.
According to the analysis, such a “pessimistic” market positioning continues to limit the liquidity available to Bitcoin, which then ends up preventing the asset from making a meaningful breakout above its long-running consolidation range around the $60,000 level.
Some market analysts, such as Doctor Profit, believe that the ongoing market conditions present a gradual accumulation opportunity. The analyst recently said that investors waiting for Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle bottom could end up missing the market’s next move.
Meanwhile, market trader Daan Crypto Trades said the crypto asset is on track to close another weekly candle above its 200-week moving average (200MA), a level often watched as an important long-term support indicator. However, the trader said a stronger move higher is still needed to retrace the previous decline and reclaim the 200-week exponential moving average (200EMA). Until that happens, Bitcoin is expected to remain stuck in its “choppy” trading range around the current level.
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The leading digital asset has been stuck in a persistent bear market over the past several months, currently trading at around $64,500 (a nearly 50% decline from its ATH set last year).
Despite the negative environment and waning investors’ interest, certain factors suggest that the bulls might be preparing to take over soon.
The first bullish signal comes from the renowned analyst Ali Martinez. Just a few days ago, he revealed on X that BTC has formed a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, noting that the last time this happened, the price exploded by more than 700%.
Should history repeat itself, the asset could skyrocket above $500,000. It’s a scenario that seems almost impossible amid the current market depression, but the crypto sector has a habit of surprising investors.
The second element is the declining amount of BTC stored on exchanges. CryptoQuant revealed that the figure has dropped to approximately 2.7 million units, the lowest since late June. This development indicates that many investors have abandoned centralized platforms and moved their holdings to self-custody solutions, thereby reducing immediate selling pressure.
Last but not least, the X account BSCN revealed that investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have purchased 66,700 coins over the last two months, marking their strongest accumulation since February. Similar developments reduce the immediately available supply and the selling pressure. They can also be mimicked by smaller investors who tend to copy whales.
The primary cryptocurrency charged toward $65,000 earlier today but was halted there and slipped by around a grand before it found support at $64,000. X user Crypto Catalysts noted the resurgence, arguing that the rally towards $100,000-$105,000 had begun.
“Next move towards 70k and after a sound correction towards 80k and eventually towards the main target of 100k,” they predicted.
It is important to note that over the past few months, BTC has attempted several decisive comebacks, yet the bears have intercepted each push. Thus, it is wise for bullish investors to keep expectations realistic.
The post 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin (BTC) Could Rally Soon appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Toobit is one of the most popular centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. It’s built for users who are looking to trade more than just crypto – a model adopted by many exchanges in the industry.
Alongside spot trading, the platform offers perpetual futures, copy trading, automated bots, AI-assisted market analysis, programmable AI-based agent tools, and exposure to traditional financial markets.
If all of this sounds complicated, don’t worry; I will break it all down in the following guide. When it comes down to it, there are four very important features that I will be looking at. These are its AI trading assistant and MCP-based AI Agent Trade Kit, the leverage proposition of up to 500x on eligible markets, zero maker and taker fees for standard spot trading, as well as TradFi products linked to metals, forex, stocks, commodities, and indices.
In this Toobit guide, I will explain how those features work, what else the exchange has to offer, its current fee structure and security measures, as well as the risks you should understand before trading.
First things first, though, let’s lay down some fundamentals. As mentioned above, Toobit is a centralized exchange, but this definition doesn’t do it much justice. It would be fairer to say that it’s a multi-product crypto exchange that’s available through a web platform and mobile applications.
Its core trading propositions include spot trading, USDT-margined and USDC-margined perpetual futures, copy trading, and crypto trading bots. The platform, however, has also expanded into decentralized finance, prediction markets, Event Contracts, crypto Earn products, as well as derivatives linked to traditional financial instruments.
The resulting product is an exchange that’s designed primarily for those of you who trade actively. But this doesn’t mean that the platform is not suited for beginners – they do offer a range of different educational materials and simple products which are aimed towards those taking their first steps in the industry.
Once you’ve created an account, you can fund it in several different ways. Users can deposit crypto from another exchange or a self-custody wallet, but you can also buy crypto with a bank card or use a supported third-party payment service.
And while the exchange offers a product kit similar to those of many of the best cryptocurrency exchanges in 2026, there are a few features that make it stand out, and that’s what I’ll focus on in this section.
We live in times where artificial intelligence is spreading like wildfire, and people are using it more and more in their everyday tasks. This doesn’t exclude trading. In fact, AI is becoming a more prominent part of the crypto trading experience.
That said, Toobit’s AI goes beyond a conventional chatbot.
The first component is called Toobit Synapse – an AI-powered market assistant that can turn market data into structured analysis, which covers areas such as current conditions, technical indicators, trends, and possible trading strategies.
Users can select an asset and receive an AI-generated market report, rather than having to interpret every chart and indicator manually.
The exchange argues that Synapse takes advantage of the Model Context Protocol (or MCP), to access current market information. The tool is intended to simplify research and help traders identify relevant signals a lot quicker. Planned functions include automated alerts, rule-based order management, and more.
The second component is the Toobit AI Agent Trade Kit. This is an open-source toolkit that lets compatible AI agents interact with Toobit through natural-language prompts or terminal commands.
In essence, the toolkit provides two main interfaces:
According to the exchange, the kit contains 65 tools, which cover spot orders, USDT-margined perps, balances, positions, fees, market data, profit and loss, transaction histories, and fund management.
A simple use case could be for the user to ask a connected AI agent to retrieve available BTC market data, review open positions, check account balances, or prepare a spot futures order. The agent can also work with take-profit and stop-loss orders.
Toobit provides USDT-margined and USDC-margined perpetual contracts. These allow traders to speculate on rising or falling crypto prices without having to own the underlying asset directly. These contracts have no expiry date, but users have to pay (or receive) funding fees.
A major selling point here (or not) is the leverage of up to 500x on eligible futures markets. Naturally, this means that a 0.2% move in the wrong direction would see your position liquidated, arguably pushing this far beyond the scope of traditional trading.
That said, there are traders who are looking for aggressive strategies, and having this option does make the platform more versatile. Of course, you should be well aware that any type of leverage trading significantly amplifies your risk and the chances of getting liquidated.
Therefore, this high leverage trading style is most appropriate for extremely experienced traders who have very strict position-sizing and risk-management rules, as well as understanding of market dynamics.
Toobit’s standard spot markets currently have 0% maker fees and 0% taker fees across every single VIP level.
This can make the platform very attractive to frequent spot traders, as well as people who rebalance their portfolios very often or use multiple orders to execute their strategies.
There is an important exception, though. Spot pairs, which are placed in Toobit’s Assessment Zone, are excluded from the zero-fee policy and follow a separate VIP-based schedule. At VIP 0, the current Assessment Zone rate is 0.075% for makers and 0.1% for takers.
Zero trading commission also doesn’t mean that every transaction is free. Users may still encounter:
Toobit’s TradFi section allows users to trade different instruments, which are linked to traditional financial markets, while using USDT for margin and settlement.
Available categories include stocks, foreign exchange, precious metals, indices, and commodities. You can both long and short these. You can trade various stocks like Tesla, SpaceX, Nvidia, and more.
There is an important caveat here. You shouldn’t confuse these products with buying shares through a conventional stockbroker. Toobit’s stock products are basically USDT-settled perpetual futures – an instrument designed to track the price of an underlying asset.
You can use various leverage and you can trade 24/7 – something rarely available on existing traditional alternatives. Of course, trading outside the underlying market’s normal hours is likely to have an impact on liquidity, pricing, and funding conditions, so keep that in mind.
Although the above four are some of the more distinctive features of the platform, this doesn’t mean that there aren’t more.
This allows you to follow experienced traders and automatically reproduce their positions. You can compare profiles using metrics such as ROI and win rate. Copiers can also adjust their copy mode, leverage, and other settings rather than following each strategy with identical parameters.
One of the interesting features is that Toobit has optimized its system to allow for zero slippage when copy trading.
There are multiple bots that you can set up, including Futures Grid and Futures DCA or even Martingale strategies. Grid bots palace orders across a predetermined price range, while DCA-style strategies may increase a position as the market moves.
This feature provides access to selected Web3 on-chain assets through Toobit’s interface. It’s suitable for those users who are looking for a more crypto-native experience. Users can also trade on-chain using the USDT they have deposited in their spot account, making it for a frictionless experience.
Yes, Toobit is considered a safe cryptocurrency exchange. It lists multi-factor authentication, ongoing audits, phishing detection, encrypted infrastructure, real-time account monitoring, as well as cold storage practices among its security measures.
When you create an account, I highly recommend that you activate all of the available protections, such as a unique password and two-factor authentication before depositing funds.
The exchange also publishes a Proof of Reserves system, which helps users see if deposits are matched 1:1. It uses a summation Merkle tree to allow users to confirm these numbers.
Toobit’s principal advantages are its broad range of trading products, AI-assisted research, open-source MCP toolkit, zero-fee standard spot markets and access to both crypto and TradFi-linked derivatives. Copy Trading, bots, APIs, TradingView tools and demo trading give active users several ways to build and test a strategy.
Its main limitations are closely connected to those features. High leverage creates substantial liquidation risk. AI output can be inaccurate. Copy Trading and bots can reproduce losses as efficiently as profitable trades. TradFi contracts do not provide the same rights as owning the underlying shares, and some services may be unavailable in particular jurisdictions.
Like any centralized exchange, Toobit also requires users to accept custodial risk while assets remain on the platform.
Yes, Toobit is a centralized cryptocurrency exchange. It offers spot trading, perpetual futures, copy trading, bots, AI tools, and trading products linked to traditional financial instruments like stocks and commodities.
Standard spot markets currently have 0% maker and taker fees. There are some pairs which are excluded from the offering.
Toobit advertises leverage of up to 500x on eligible markets. The maximum varies by contract, asset, position size and current risk rules, so 500x is not available universally.
Toobit has different verification levels. The required level depends on the service, withdrawal limit and account function. Advanced verification is required for read-and-write API permissions.
Yes. Toobit publishes reserve information and provides Merkle-tree-based tools through which users can check the inclusion of their balances. The exchange says it conducts comprehensive audits monthly.
Over the years, Toobit has developed into a wide-ranging trading platform rather than a basic spot exchange. Some of its strongest differentiators are its AI trading assistant and MCP AI Agent Trade Kit, zero-fee standard spot trading, leverage of up to 500x on some eligible markets, and USDT-settled access to TradFi-linked products.
Those features make Toobit particularly relevant to traders who are active and technically confident.
That said, there is a range of comprehensive tooling for beginners as well. Of course, some of the abovementioned options do come with certain risks, which have to be accounted for – just like any other exchange.
The post Toobit Exchange Guide 2026: AI Trading, Zero Spot Fees, High Leverage, TradFi and More appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Bitcoin investors waiting for a traditional four-year cycle bottom in September or October could be caught on the wrong side of the market, according to analyst Doctor Profit.
While the four-year cycle worked “almost perfectly” at the top, now the analyst believes the opposite is happening.
In his latest post on X, Doctor Profit said he does not see Bitcoin falling below $50,000, although he identified the area around $54,000 as a major liquidity zone that remains important. “There is an extreme amount of liquidity around $54,000, and that cannot be ignored,” he said, while estimating that a move from current levels to that price would represent roughly 15% downside.
Given that risk-reward profile, he argued that it makes sense to start accumulating now, but “step by step, not all in.” The analyst also noted that he does not expect the next major rally to begin immediately.
Doctor Profit further explained that the market could front-run the widely anticipated cycle bottom while pointing to several crucial developments that could strengthen sentiment before then. For instance, the planned rollout of tokenized stocks through infrastructure involving major financial institutions, including BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P, Nasdaq, and the DTCC, which he said is expected to move forward in October after tokenization platforms were effectively tested through earlier market activity.
Doctor Profit cited rumors that the CLARITY Act could pass in August as another potential catalyst, and added that regulatory clarity would make it easier for institutions to enter the crypto market and accelerate tokenization. However, prediction market traders have since become less optimistic about the bill’s prospects after the implied odds of its passage declined in recent days.
After suffering eight straight weeks of heavy outflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued their recovery with another week of net inflows. According to data compiled by SoSoValue, the funds have attracted more than $200 million so far in July, continuing the positive trend that began in the middle of the month.
Last week alone saw roughly $76 million in net inflows.
The post Analyst Says Waiting for Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Bottom Could Be a Costly Mistake appeared first on CryptoPotato.
XRP remains under pressure across the higher timeframes, with buyers struggling to reclaim key resistance levels despite several rebound attempts. The broader structure continues to favor sellers, although the price is still holding above an important demand area that could determine the next directional move.
On the daily timeframe, XRP continues to trade inside a well-defined descending channel, reflecting the broader bearish trend that has dominated the market for several months. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain above the price and continue sloping lower, reinforcing the negative higher-timeframe bias.
The recent recovery attempt stalled precisely beneath the $1.24-$1.28 supply zone, where the descending channel’s upper boundary converges with the moving averages. This confluence strengthens the resistance area and explains why sellers quickly regained control after the latest rally.
Meanwhile, the asset continues to defend the $1.02-$1.06 demand zone. This support has repeatedly attracted buyers over recent weeks and remains the most important level to monitor. A sustained break below this area would expose the broader demand region around $0.88-$0.92, while holding above it keeps the possibility of another recovery toward the channel resistance alive.
On the 4-hour chart, XRP remains confined beneath a descending trendline that has capped every recovery since the mid-June peak. Although buyers have managed to produce several short-lived rebounds, none have been strong enough to invalidate the sequence of lower highs.
The $1.16-$1.18 zone represents the first meaningful resistance and aligns with the descending trendline, creating a key decision area for short-term price action. A decisive breakout above this confluence would improve the short-term structure and could pave the way for another test of the higher supply zone around $1.24-$1.29.
On the downside, the $1.02-$1.06 demand region continues to provide solid support. As long as this area remains intact, Ripple could continue consolidating within the current range. However, losing this support would likely accelerate bearish momentum and shift focus toward the higher-timeframe demand around $0.88-$0.92.
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